Weekly Recap: Rate Cuts, Shutdown Delays, and Mixed Market Signals (October 6 – 10, 2025, Recap)

Last week’s economic landscape was shaped by policy shifts, data disruptions, and notable corporate earnings. Central bank action in New Zealand and mixed economic readings from North America highlighted diverging growth conditions, while the ongoing US government shutdown delayed key labor market releases. Commodity prices saw broad volatility, with oil retreating and precious metals advancing. Meanwhile, corporate earnings from major names like PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and Levi Strauss reflected resilience in consumer demand but varying investor reactions. Overall, markets faced a cautious tone amid global uncertainty and restrained optimism heading into mid-October.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Wednesday, October 8

04:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.5% in October 2025 to support a weak economy and guide inflation back to its 2% target midpoint by mid-2026. Inflation remains near the top of the 1–3% band, but spare capacity and easing domestic pressures are expected to lower it. The Committee noted subdued growth, flat house prices, and soft investment, though lower interest rates are boosting consumption. While global growth—especially in AI-related sectors—has stayed resilient, it is expected to slow in 2026. The MPC remains open to further rate cuts if needed to ensure inflation stabilizes sustainably around 2%.

The NZDUSD pair edged down 0.2% on the day.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

US refineries ran at 92.4% capacity in the week ending October 3, 2025, processing 16.3 million barrels of crude Oil per day, slightly more than the previous week. Crude oil imports rose to 6.4 million barrels per day, while inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels to 420 million—about 4% below the five-year average. Gasoline and distillate fuel supplies both declined, reflecting steady fuel demand. Overall, U.S. petroleum use averaged 20.9 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up 1.7% from a year ago.

Crude oil prices edged up 0.3% from the previous day.

Thursday, October 9

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

The US unemployment claims report was not released this week due to the ongoing federal government shutdown.

Friday, October 10

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Employment in Canada rose by 60,000 (0.3%) in September 2025, lifting the employment rate to 60.6%, while the unemployment rate held steady at 7.1%. Gains were led by full-time jobs and core-aged workers, especially women. Manufacturing, healthcare, and agriculture added jobs, while retail trade saw declines. Alberta recorded the largest employment increase. Average hourly wages grew 3.3% from a year earlier. Despite the gains, overall job growth for 2025 remains modest, and youth unemployment climbed to its highest level since 2010 (excluding pandemic years).

USDCAD ticked down 0.09% on the day.

Tentative – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The release of the US nonfarm payroll report was postponed this week due to the ongoing federal government shutdown.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

US consumer sentiment was largely unchanged in October at 55, as optimism about current finances and near-term business conditions was offset by weaker views on future finances and big-ticket purchases. High prices and job concerns continue to weigh on households, with little expectation of improvement. The ongoing federal government shutdown has had minimal impact on sentiment so far. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.6%, while long-run expectations held steady at 3.7%.

EURUSD gained 0.5% on the day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 4.00% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 3.56% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 3.35% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 4.77% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 3.02%
2. DJIA was down by 3.23%
3. NASDAQ 100 decreased by 3.07%

Top Gainers

1. Spruce Biosciences, Inc. (SPRB) 1,868.25%
2. HCM III Acquisition Corp. (HCMA) 284.96%
3. Galecto, Inc. (GLTO) 234.04%

Top Losers

1. Connexa Sports Technologies Inc. (YYAI) -91.71%
2. Gaotu Techedu Inc. (GOTU) -88.03%
3. Vantage Corp (VNTG) -85.22%

Company Earnings (October 6 -10)

Thursday, October 9: PEP (PepsiCo, Inc.)

Thursday, October 9: DAL (Delta Air Lines, Inc.)

Thursday, October 9: LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co.)

PepsiCo beat Wall Street forecasts for third-quarter revenue and profit, supported by steady global demand for snacks and sodas and growing US sales of healthier drinks. Shares rose 2% as PepsiCo announced cost cuts, plant closures, and product line reductions to boost efficiency, while focusing on new health-oriented launches like a revamped Gatorade and electrolyte-rich drinks.

PEP stock rose 5.71% on the week.

Delta Air Lines reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings, driven by robust demand for premium travel and higher ticket prices amid slower industry capacity growth. The airline expects record fourth-quarter profits and revenue growth of up to 4%. Delta plans to expand premium seating and reduce main cabin capacity to boost margins. Shares rose about 5% on the results, with management noting limited impact so far from the ongoing US government shutdown.

DAL stock slipped 0.38% over the week.

Levi Strauss reported third-quarter earnings of 34 cents per share, topping expectations of 31 cents, with revenue rising 7% to $1.54 billion. Growth was driven by strong direct-to-consumer and e-commerce sales, which together accounted for nearly half of total revenue. CEO Michelle Gass said the company’s shift toward a DTC-first model is boosting results and momentum heading into the holiday season. Levi Strauss raised its full-year earnings and revenue forecasts, signaling confidence in continued strength across markets.

LEVI stock fell 12.23% for the week.

Conclusion

The week closed with markets balancing optimism over corporate performance against lingering macroeconomic concerns. Central bank easing in New Zealand and steady consumer sentiment in the US underscored a cautiously improving global outlook, though the ongoing government shutdown delayed key labor data and added uncertainty. Commodity markets reflected risk aversion, with oil prices retreating while gold and silver advanced. Despite solid earnings from major companies like PepsiCo and Delta, overall equity indices ended lower as investors remained wary of slower global growth and policy headwinds heading into mid-October.