The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for September 22 – 26, 2025

The upcoming week is packed with key economic releases and central bank decisions that could drive volatility across major currencies. Market participants will be closely watching flash PMI data from Germany, the UK, and the US for early signals on global growth momentum. Midweek, Australia’s CPI will provide an update on inflation trends, followed by the Swiss National Bank’s policy decision and the US Final GDP report on Thursday. Labor market strength will be tested with US unemployment claims, while Canada’s GDP and the US Core PCE price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—round out the week on Friday.

Alongside macro data, several corporate earnings reports (Micron, Cintas, Costco, Accenture) will offer additional insights into sector performance and business conditions.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Tuesday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Tuesday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Tuesday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Tuesday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Tuesday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Saturday All Day – Australia: Parliamentary Elections (AUD)

Tuesday, September 23

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.

Germany’s manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery in August, with output growing at its fastest pace in over three years and new orders rising for a third month, according to the HCOB PMI. The index climbed to 49.8, its highest since mid-2022, but still just below the 50.0 growth threshold. Despite stronger demand and production, factories continued cutting jobs, reduced purchasing activity, and ran down inventories. Input costs kept falling, but output prices dropped at the quickest rate in six months amid competitive pressures. Business optimism eased slightly, though it remains above the long-term average.

Economists expect a reading of 50.0, signaling a potential return to growth.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

Germany’s service sector slipped back into contraction in August, with the HCOB Services PMI falling to 49.3 from 50.6 in July. Activity weakened as new orders declined, hiring stalled, and backlogs shrank at the fastest pace in three months. Firms faced rising wage-driven costs and passed some of these on through higher prices, though inflation rates stayed below recent averages. Despite softer demand and cost pressures, business sentiment held steady, with many companies still cautiously optimistic about growth over the next year.

Analysts expect the index to edge up to 49.5 in the next release.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

The UK manufacturing sector remained under pressure in August, with the PMI slipping to 47.0, its lowest in three months and well below the 50.0 growth threshold. New orders and exports fell sharply, driven by weak client confidence, tariff concerns, and higher labor costs. Output contracted for a tenth straight month, while job losses continued for a tenth month as well. Input costs rose at the fastest pace since May, pushing some firms to raise prices. Despite these challenges, business optimism improved to a six-month high, though it stayed below the long-term average amid ongoing policy and competitiveness concerns.

Economists forecast a contractionary reading of 47.2.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

The UK services sector strengthened in August, with the PMI rising to 54.2, its highest in 16 months, signaling solid growth. New orders rebounded sharply, including the first export rise since March, while business confidence hit a 10-month high. However, employment continued to fall for an 11th straight month as firms faced rising payroll costs and turned to automation. Input cost inflation also reaccelerated, pushing output prices higher despite margin pressures. Overall, the sector ended summer on a stronger footing, though policy uncertainty and weak domestic demand remain concerns.

Economists expect the index to ease to 53.6.

16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing strengthened sharply in August, with the PMI rising to 53.0, its highest since May 2022. Output surged on the back of stronger domestic demand and inventory building, while employment rose solidly to meet workloads. However, tariffs pushed input costs sharply higher, driving factory gate prices up despite easing supply chain pressures. Export demand weakened for a second month, but overall business confidence improved as firms planned investments and anticipated continued growth.

Economists expect a reading of 51.8 in the next release.

16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

US services activity stayed strong in August, with the PMI at 54.5, the second-highest reading of 2025. Growth was driven by solid new business, especially in financial services, and firms added staff for a sixth month. However, tariffs and higher payroll costs pushed expenses and selling prices up, while export demand slipped for a fifth month. Business confidence weakened to a four-month low on policy and inflation worries, despite firms still expecting growth ahead.

Economists forecast the PMI at 53.8.

Wednesday, September 24

04:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.

Australia’s monthly CPI rose 2.8% in the year to July, up from 1.9% in June. Excluding volatile items, inflation climbed to 3.2%. The trimmed mean measure, which smooths out sharp price swings, also increased to 2.7% from 2.1% in June.

Economists expect inflation to rise to 2.9%.

Thursday, September 25

10:30 am – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate to 0% effective June 20, 2025, citing weaker inflation pressures after prices fell to -0.1% in May. Inflation is forecast at 0.2% in 2025, while GDP growth is expected at 1–1.5%

Economists expect the Swiss National Bank to keep rates unchanged.

15:30 – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)

The Gross Domestic Product q/q (GDP) represents the valuation of all goods and services produced in the United States in the current quarter compared to the previous one.

Although these are quarterly figures, they are presented in an annualized form (quarterly change multiplied by four). GDP is published in three stages—Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release comes first and typically has the strongest market impact.

GDP growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

US GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2 2025, revised up from the advance estimate, after contracting 0.5% in Q1. Growth was driven by lower imports and stronger consumer spending, partly offset by weaker investment. Corporate profits rose $65.5 billion, rebounding from a sharp drop in Q1.

Economists expect growth to hold at 3.3%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

US jobless claims rose to 263,000 in the week ending September 6, up 27,000 and the highest since October 2021. The four-week average climbed to 240,500—the insured unemployment rate held at 1.3%, with continuing claims steady at 1.94 million.

Economists forecast claims at 235,000.

Friday, September 26

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Canada’s real GDP slipped 0.1% in June 2025, marking a third straight monthly decline. Goods-producing industries fell 0.5%, led by manufacturing and utilities, while services edged up 0.1% on gains in retail, real estate, and wholesale trade.

Economists project Canadian GDP growth at 0.1%

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

US personal income rose 0.4% in July 2025, while disposable income gained 0.4% and consumer spending increased 0.5%. The PCE price index rose 0.2% on the month and 2.6% year over year, with core PCE up 2.9%. The saving rate held at 4.4%.

Economists expect the index to ease to 0.2%

Company Earnings (September 22 -26)

Tuesday, September 23: MU (Micron Technology, Inc.)

Wednesday, September 24: CTAS (Cintas Corporation)

Thursday, September 25: COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation)

Thursday, September 25: ACN (Accenture plc)

Conclusion

With a full slate of economic data, central bank updates, and earnings releases, the week ahead promises heightened market activity. Investors will be balancing growth signals from PMI surveys with inflation readings and policy guidance, while also assessing the health of labor markets and corporate performance. The combination of these factors is likely to set the tone for currency, equity, and bond markets as September draws to a close.