Markets React to Inflation, Rate Cuts, and Earnings (September 15 – 19, 2025 Recap)

Major global economic indicators and central bank decisions shaped markets last week, alongside key corporate earnings. Inflation data, retail sales, and interest rate cuts in North America set the tone, while the UK and Australia reported mixed signals on prices and employment. In the Asia-Pacific region, New Zealand’s GDP contracted, and Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy. Commodities showed modest weekly moves, gold and silver advanced, and US equities gained broadly. Corporate earnings from Ferguson, General Mills, and FedEx added further insight into sector performance.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, September 16

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Consumer prices in August rose 1.9% year over year, slightly faster than July’s 1.7% increase, largely due to smaller declines in gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, inflation held at 2.4%. Offsetting upward pressure, travel tours and fresh fruit prices eased. On a monthly basis, the CPI slipped 0.1%, though seasonally adjusted, it rose 0.2%.

USDCAD decreased by 0.28% from the previous day.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

US retail sales rose 0.6% in August, reaching $732 billion, and were 5% higher than a year ago. Sales from June to August were also up 4.5% compared with the same period in 2024. Online shopping continued to grow strongly, with sales up 10% from last year, while restaurants and bars saw sales rise 6.5%.

EURUSD increased by 0.9% compared to the previous day.

Wednesday, September 17

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

UK inflation eased slightly in August 2025. The CPIH, which includes housing costs, rose 4.1% over the year, down from 4.2% in July. The standard CPI held steady at 3.8%. On a monthly basis, both indexes rose 0.3%. Air fares pulled inflation lower, while restaurants, hotels, and fuel pushed it higher. Core inflation also cooled, with services price growth slowing more noticeably than goods.

GBPUSD decreased by 0.16% from the previous day.

16:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, citing weaker growth, rising unemployment, and easing inflation pressures amid global trade tensions.

USDCAD increased by 0.25% from the previous day.

21:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 0.25 points to 4.00–4.25%, citing slower growth, rising downside risks to jobs, and still-elevated inflation.

EURUSD slipped 0.46% compared to the previous day.

Thursday, September 18

01:45 am – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.9% in the June 2025 quarter, reversing the 0.9% growth seen in March. Compared with a year earlier, GDP was down 1.1%. Expenditure on GDP also declined 0.9% in the quarter after a 1.2% rise in March, leaving annual expenditure 0.6% lower than the previous year.

NZDUSD fell 1.34% on the day.

04:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August 2025, with the number of unemployed increasing by 4,100 to 652,300. Youth unemployment also climbed to 9.7%.

AUDUSD decreased by 0.61% compared to the previous day.

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

The Bank of England kept interest rates at 4% in September 2025, with two members favoring a cut to 3.75%. The MPC also agreed to reduce government bond holdings by £70 billion over the next year, while noting continued disinflation and subdued UK growth.

GBPUSD decreased by 0.52% from the previous day.

Friday, September 19

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

At its latest meeting, the Bank of Japan unanimously decided to maintain its monetary policy stance, keeping the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 0.5 percent.

USDJPY edged down 0.02% on the day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 0.38% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 0.33% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 1.15% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 2.13% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 1.16%
2. DJIA was up by 0.96%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 2.13%

Top Gainers

1. AGM Group Holdings Inc. (AGMH) 343.78%
2. Turbo Energy, S.A. (TURB) 236.95%
3. Helius Medical Technologies, Inc. (HSDT) 219.18%

Top Losers

1. aTyr Pharma, Inc. (ATYR) -83.55%
2. DigiAsia Corp. (FAAS) -62.79%
3. Angel Studios, Inc. (ANGX) -54.75%

Company Earnings (September 15 -19)

Tuesday, September 16: FERG (Ferguson Enterprises Inc.)

Wednesday, September 17: GIS (General Mills, Inc.)

Thursday, September 18: FDX (FedEx Corporation)

Ferguson plc beat Q4 2025 earnings expectations, reporting EPS of $3.48 vs. $3.01 expected. Revenue rose 6.9% to $8.5B, with strong nonresidential growth offsetting softer residential demand. Operating profit climbed 13% to $972M, margins expanded, and the company announced multiple acquisitions. For the full year, sales grew 3.8% to $30.8B, EPS reached $9.94, and Ferguson returned $1.4B to shareholders. Guidance points to mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin improvement in 2025.

FERG shares jumped 8.41% from the previous week.

General Mills beat earnings expectations with Q1 EPS of $0.86 vs. $0.82 forecast, but revenue of $4.52B was down 6.8% year over year. Net margin was 15.2% with a 23.5% return on equity.

GIS shares increased by 0.86% compared to the previous week.

FedEx reported Q1 2026 earnings with EPS of $3.83, beating estimates of $3.71. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year to $22.2 billion, also above expectations. The company has a trailing EPS of $16.88 and a P/E ratio of 13.55. Earnings are projected to rise 13.1% next year, from $19.14 to $21.65 per share.

FDX shares increased by 0.96% from the previous week.

Conclusion

Overall, last week’s economic data and central bank decisions highlighted diverging growth and inflation trends across regions, keeping markets alert to shifting monetary policies. Commodities saw only mild moves, while equities posted solid gains. Corporate earnings added further perspective, with Ferguson, General Mills, and FedEx all beating profit expectations despite mixed revenue results. Looking ahead, markets remain focused on the balance between slowing growth, inflation pressures, and central bank responses.