The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for October 20 – 24, 2025

The week ahead features key inflation and PMI releases likely to shape market sentiment. Inflation data from New Zealand, Canada, and the UK will gauge price pressures and central bank outlooks, while flash PMIs from Germany, the UK, and the US will reveal trends in manufacturing and services activity. Major earnings from Netflix, Tesla, Coca-Cola, and Ford may also add to market volatility.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 12:45 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: CPI q/q (NZD)

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Friday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Friday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Friday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Friday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Friday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Friday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Monday, October 20

12:45 am – New Zealand: CPI q/q (NZD)

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate of price change of goods and services purchased by New Zealand households.

In July, Stats NZ reported that New Zealand’s consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in the June 2025 quarter. The main drivers were cultural services, up 9.5 percent due to higher streaming subscription costs, and electricity prices, which increased 4.9 percent—the largest quarterly rise in over a decade. These gains were partly offset by a 4.8 percent fall in petrol prices, with CPI excluding petrol rising 0.7 percent for the quarter.

Analysts anticipate the next quarterly CPI will rise by around 0.8 percent.

Tuesday, October 21

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

Canada’s annual inflation edged up to 1.9 percent in August from 1.7 percent in July, mainly because gasoline prices fell less sharply than the month before. Excluding gasoline, prices rose 2.4 percent year over year. Lower costs for travel tours and fresh fruit helped offset some of the upward pressure. On a monthly basis, the CPI slipped 0.1 percent.

Economists expect the upcoming report to show the CPI edging down 0.1 percent.

Wednesday, October 22

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.

UK inflation eased slightly in August 2025, with the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rising 4.1 percent year on year, down from 4.2 percent in July. The standard CPI held steady at 3.8 percent. On a monthly basis, both CPIH and CPI rose 0.3 percent. Air fares made the largest downward contribution to inflation, while higher prices for restaurants, hotels, and motor fuels partly offset the decline. Core inflation also moderated, with core CPIH falling to 4.0 percent and core CPI easing to 3.6 percent, as services inflation slowed but goods prices edged slightly higher.

Analysts expect CPI to rise by 4 percent.

Friday, October 24

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.

Germany’s manufacturing sector saw its strongest output growth in over three years in September, with the Manufacturing PMI Output Index rising to 53.0 — a 42-month high. However, the headline PMI slipped to 49.5 from 49.8, signaling a slight contraction.

Economists anticipate a reading of 49.6.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

Germany’s services sector returned to growth in September, with the Services PMI rising to 51.5 — an eight-month high — while the Composite PMI hit a 16-month peak at 52.0. Business activity increased modestly despite a second monthly drop in new orders and the steepest job losses in over five years. Firms faced strong wage-driven cost pressures, leading to higher output prices. Despite fragile demand and shrinking backlogs, business confidence improved slightly, reaching its highest level since May.

Economists anticipate a growth reading of 51.1.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

UK manufacturing activity weakened in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI falling to 46.2 — a five-month low — as output and new orders declined more sharply. Domestic and export demand remained subdued, with overseas orders dropping at one of the fastest rates in over two years. Job losses continued for an eleventh month, and purchasing activity was cut back amid cost pressures and weak confidence. Supply chain delays persisted, though inflation eased to a nine-month low, offering slight relief to manufacturers facing a prolonged downturn.

Economists forecast a contractionary reading of 46.9.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

UK service sector growth slowed sharply in September, with the S&P Global Services PMI dropping to 50.8 from 54.2 — a five-month low. Weaker demand, falling exports, and client caution ahead of the Autumn Budget led to softer new orders and the twelfth consecutive month of job cuts. Input cost inflation remained high due to wage and utility pressures, though it eased slightly. Firms raised output prices at the slowest pace since June, while business confidence moderated amid economic and political uncertainty.

Analysts forecast a reading of 51.4.

16:45 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing growth eased in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI falling to 52.0 from 53.0. Output and new orders rose more slowly as tariffs hit exports and raised costs, particularly for trade with Canada and Mexico. Selling price inflation dropped to its lowest since January amid softer demand and competition. Employment continued to grow and inventories increased, but rising tariff-related delays and weaker order growth signaled risks to future production despite overall positive sentiment.

Economists expect the Manufacturing PMI to rise to 51.9 in the upcoming release.

16:45 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

US service sector growth eased slightly in September, with the S&P Global Services PMI slipping to 54.2 from 54.5. Business activity and new orders expanded at softer rates, though export demand rose for the first time in six months. Tariffs and wage pressures kept input costs high, but selling price inflation slowed to a five-month low. Hiring was limited amid efficiency efforts, while business confidence improved to its highest since May, supported by lower interest rates and optimism for stronger demand ahead.

Analysts expect a growth reading of 53.5.

Company Earnings (October 20 – 24)

Tuesday, October 21: NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)

Tuesday, October 21: GE (GE Aerospace)

Tuesday, October 21: KO (The Coca-Cola Company)

Tuesday, October 21: GM (General Motors Company)

Wednesday, October 22: TSLA (Tesla, Inc.)

Wednesday, October 22: T (A&T Inc.)

Thursday, October 23: BX (Blackstone Inc.)

Thursday, October 23: F (Ford Motor Company)

Conclusion

As the week unfolds, investors will be watching inflation and PMI data for signals on global economic momentum and central bank policy paths. With key reports spanning three continents and major earnings from leading corporates, markets could see heightened volatility as traders react to shifting inflation trends, business sentiment, and growth prospects across major economies.