Weekly Recap: Markets Rally as Bank Earnings Shine Amid Data Delays (October 13 – 17, 2025, Recap)

Global markets saw steady data and strong US bank earnings despite delays in key US reports due to the government shutdown. Australia’s labor market and UK GDP held firm, while rising US crude inventories weighed on oil prices.

Crude and Brent fell, but gold and silver gained sharply. US stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 up 2.48%, NASDAQ 3.56%, and Dow Jones 2.15%. Major banks—including Morgan Stanley, American Express, and Bank of America—beat expectations, boosting overall market sentiment.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Thursday, October 16

03:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

In September 2025, Australia’s labor market showed steady conditions with a trend unemployment rate of 4.3%, unchanged from August. Employment rose by 19,900 to 14.65 million, supported by gains in both full-time and part-time jobs, while the participation rate held at 66.9%. The underemployment rate remained at 5.9%, and total monthly hours worked increased slightly to 1,987 million. Seasonally adjusted figures showed a small rise in unemployment to 4.5%, suggesting a modest softening in labor market momentum despite continued employment growth.

The AUDUSD edged 0.43% lower on the day following the release.

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

UK GDP grew by 0.1% in August 2025, following a 0.1% decline in July. Over the three months to August, the economy expanded by 0.3%, driven mainly by a 0.4% rise in services and a 0.3% increase in construction, while production fell 0.3%. On a yearly basis, GDP was up 1.3%, reflecting modest but steady economic growth.

The GBPUSD pair rose 0.24% following the release.

19:00 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

US refineries processed 15.1 million barrels per day for the week ending October 10, 2025, down 1.2 million from the prior week, operating at 85.7% capacity. Crude oil inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million, about 4% below the five-year average. Gasoline and distillate stocks fell, with distillates down 4.5 million barrels. Imports declined, while total petroleum inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels. Overall fuel demand averaged 20.7 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, slightly below last year’s level.

Crude oil prices fell 2.35% on the day.

Tentative – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The United States Producer Price Index (PPI) report was not released this week due to the ongoing US government shutdown.

Tentative – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The release of the United States Retail Sales report was delayed this week as a result of the ongoing US government shutdown.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 1.73% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 1.21% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 5.91% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 3.25% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 2.48%
2. DJIA was up by 2.15%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 3.56%

Top Gainers

1. HCM III Acquisition Corp. (HCMA) 333.33%
2. Solidion Technology, Inc. (STI) 285.61%
3. Rani Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. (RANI) 257.92%

Top Losers

1. Yueda Digital Holding (YDKG) -97.71%
2. UTime Limited (WTO) -94.02%
3. Gaotu Techedu Inc. (GOTU) -87.22%

Company Earnings (October 13 -17)

Tuesday, October 14: JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co.)

Tuesday, October 14: JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)

Tuesday, October 14: WFC (Wells Fargo & Company)

Tuesday, October 14: C (Citigroup Inc.)

Wednesday, October 15: BAC (Bank of America Corporation)

Wednesday, October 15: MS (Morgan Stanley)

Friday, October 17: AXP (American Express Company)

JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported strong Q3 2025 results, posting earnings per share of $5.07, beating estimates by $0.24. Revenue rose 8.8% year-over-year to $46.43 billion, exceeding expectations. With a trailing EPS of $20.19 and a P/E ratio of 14.75, the bank’s earnings are projected to grow 7.3% next year, reaching $19.42 per share.

JPM stock slipped 1.1% over the past week.

Johnson & Johnson reported Q3 2025 earnings of $2.80 per share, beating estimates by $0.04. Revenue rose 6.8% year-over-year to $23.99 billion, surpassing expectations. With a trailing EPS of $10.36 and a P/E ratio of 18.65, the company’s earnings are projected to grow 4.6% next year to $11.07 per share.

JNJ stock rose 1.31% over the past week.

Wells Fargo reported Q3 net income of $5.6 billion, or $1.66 per share, up 9% year-over-year. Revenue grew 5%, supported by higher net interest income and a 25% surge in investment banking fees.

WFC shares rose 7.29% over the past week.

Citigroup reported Q3 net income of $3.8 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.24, with revenues up 9% year-over-year. All business units posted record third-quarter revenues, led by a 34% rise in Banking, 15% in Markets, 8% in Wealth, and 7% in US Personal Banking.

C shares rose 3.34% in the past week.

Bank of America reported Q3 2025 earnings of $1.06 per share, beating estimates by $0.13. Revenue rose 10.8% year-over-year to $28.09 billion, exceeding expectations. With a trailing EPS of $3.67 and a P/E ratio of 13.97, the bank’s earnings are projected to grow 17.8% next year to $4.36 per share.

BAC shares increased by 5.41% compared to last week.

Morgan Stanley reported record Q3 revenue of $18.2 billion and EPS of $2.80, achieving a 23.5% return on tangible common equity. Institutional Securities revenue rose to $8.5 billion, driven by over 50% growth in investment banking and an 80% surge in equity underwriting. Wealth Management reached $7 trillion in client assets with strong inflows, while Investment Management hit a record $1.8 trillion in AUM. The bank maintained solid capital strength with a 15.2% CET1 ratio and $1.1 billion in share buybacks.

MS stock rose 4.48% over the past week.

American Express reported record Q3 revenue of $18.4 billion, up 11%, and EPS of $4.14, up 19%, prompting management to raise full-year guidance to 9–10% revenue growth and EPS of $15.20–$15.50. The refreshed Platinum Cards showed strong early momentum, with account acquisitions doubling pre-refresh levels and record Amex Travel bookings. While near-term costs rose due to immediate expense recognition on new benefits, portfolio quality remained solid, spending grew 8.5% year-over-year, and return on equity reached 36% with $2.9 billion returned to shareholders.

AXP shares increased by 9.60% in the last week.

Conclusion

Global markets advanced amid steady economic data and strong US bank earnings, though some US reports were delayed by the government shutdown. Australia’s job market and UK GDP showed resilience, while rising US oil inventories pressured crude prices.

Gold and silver surged, offsetting weekly declines in crude and Brent oil. Major U.S. indices rallied, with the S&P 500 up 2.48%, NASDAQ 3.56%, and Dow Jones 2.15%.

Earnings from top banks—including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and American Express—beat expectations, highlighting robust revenue and solid profitability, which lifted overall market sentiment.