Bitcoin Rebounds as Trade Hopes and Fed Pivot Lift Sentiment

After weeks of turbulence, the crypto market is showing renewed signs of life as geopolitical and monetary shifts reshape investor sentiment. Optimism returned after President Trump confirmed an upcoming meeting with China’s Xi Jinping, sparking hopes of a trade breakthrough. At the same time, Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor hinted at another major corporate purchase, even as crypto valuations remain under pressure.

Technically, Bitcoin’s price action remains volatile, consolidating below key moving averages after a sharp pullback from record highs. Meanwhile, analysts are debating whether the long-held four-year cycle is finally breaking down amid the rise of institutional players and changing market dynamics. With rate cuts on the horizon and global tensions easing, traders are now watching closely to see if Bitcoin’s recent rebound marks the start of a broader recovery heading into 2026.

Crypto Rally Reignites as Trump–Xi Summit Sparks Trade Deal Hopes

Crypto markets surged after US President Donald Trump confirmed he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Seoul on October 31. The announcement signals easing US–China trade tensions, boosting investor optimism and fueling a broad crypto rally. Bitcoin rose about 2% to $110,115, while Ether, BNB, and Solana gained between 3% and 4%.

The rebound follows last week’s massive $20 billion crypto liquidation triggered by renewed trade fears. Sentiment, which had plunged to “Extreme Fear,” is now improving as markets price in potential progress toward a trade deal. Analysts expect short-term volatility but maintain that the long-term bullish trend in crypto remains intact.

Strategy May Buy More Bitcoin Amid NAV Crash

Michael Saylor, the founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), has hinted that his company might buy more Bitcoin soon, even though the value of many corporate Bitcoin holdings has dropped sharply.

He posted a chart showing Strategy’s 640,250 BTC, worth about 69 billion dollars, with a caption suggesting that the next purchase could be coming. Strategy already holds around 2.5% of all Bitcoin, far more than any other company.

This comes as many Bitcoin-holding firms see their market values fall below the worth of their actual Bitcoin reserves, raising concerns that earlier excitement around these companies may have gone too far.

Technical Analysis

Following the new all-time high of $126,134.65 on October 6, BTCUSD retraced sharply to $101,833.30, marking a 19% decline from peak to trough. BTCUSD has since rebounded more than 8%, though it remains below the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting short- and medium-term sentiment remains bearish.

Momentum indicators confirm this bias, with the Momentum Oscillator holding below the 100 baseline and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining under 50, both signaling negative sentiment.

If downside momentum continues, support levels are seen at $103,423.39, $101,833.30, and $93,093.28. A recovery could instead bring resistance into focus at $115,975.72, $126,134.65, and $136,285.39.

End of an Era? Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Under Fire

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP all dropped sharply last week as traders question whether the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle is coming to an end. Bitcoin fell about 9%, Ethereum 6%, and XRP 15% after renewed US–China trade tensions and a record $19 billion in crypto liquidations.

Some analysts believe retail traders are selling because they still follow the old “buy before the halving, sell after” strategy, expecting another crash as the cycle nears its end. Others argue that this pattern no longer holds, since institutional investors, ETFs, and derivatives now play a much larger role in the market.

Experts say that as the crypto space matures and becomes more tied to traditional finance, factors like miner rewards have far less impact—meaning Bitcoin’s future may not follow its historic four-year pattern.

Bitcoin Finds Its Footing Amid Rate-Cut Optimism

Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing after weeks of volatility, with analysts suggesting it may have found a local bottom around the $105,000 level. The cryptocurrency rose nearly 2% over the weekend to reach $109,400 as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts boosted sentiment.

Experts say the Fed’s shift toward ending quantitative tightening could inject more liquidity into markets, supporting risk assets like Bitcoin. However, they also warn that renewed trade tensions could still trigger another downturn.

With an upcoming inflation report and key Fed meeting on October 29, investors are watching closely to see if softer monetary policy and improving global conditions can sustain Bitcoin’s recovery heading into 2026.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the crypto market appears to be regaining its footing after a turbulent period marked by record liquidations, shifting monetary policy, and renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Optimism surrounding the upcoming Trump–Xi summit, the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot, and potential new corporate Bitcoin purchases have all contributed to a cautiously improving outlook.

While short-term volatility is likely to persist, the combination of easing global tensions and a more supportive policy environment could set the stage for a broader recovery. As the market evolves beyond traditional cycles and responds to deeper institutional forces, Bitcoin’s path into 2026 may be defined less by past patterns and more by how it adapts to a maturing financial landscape.