The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for November 3 – 7, 2025

The first week of November features several key economic releases and central bank decisions that could drive market volatility across major currencies. Traders will be watching inflation trends in Switzerland, policy updates from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England, and critical US data, including the ISM PMIs, ADP employment, and the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Canada and New Zealand’s labor data will also provide fresh insight into job market strength, while oil inventory figures and major corporate earnings (including Pfizer, BP, McDonald’s, and Devon Energy) could add further momentum to commodity and equity markets.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 09:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Monday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Tuesday 05:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Tuesday Tentative – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

Tuesday 23:45 (GMT+2) – New Zealand: Employment Change q/q (NZD)

Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+2) – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Wednesday 17:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

Thursday 14:00 (GMT+2) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Friday Tentative – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Monday, November 3

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland.

It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.

In September, Switzerland’s consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.2% to 107.5 points, while annual inflation stood at 0.2%, according to the Federal Statistical Office. The decline was driven by lower prices for hotels, air travel, and package holidays, partly offset by higher costs for clothing, berries, and furniture.

Analysts anticipate that the next CPI will fall by 0.1 percent.

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

In September, US manufacturing activity contracted for the seventh straight month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI edging up to 49.1% from 48.7% in August. While production improved, new orders and inventories fell, signaling weak demand. Prices remained elevated, and employment continued to contract, indicating that the sector’s downturn persisted despite a modest uptick in overall activity.

Economists expect the Manufacturing PMI to edge up to 49.4.

Tuesday, November 4

05:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Interest Rate Decision is one of the key instruments of the national monetary and credit policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

A higher interest rate leads to the appreciation of the Australian dollar.

In September, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, noting that the slowdown in inflation has eased and price pressures may rise again in the September quarter. Domestic demand and housing activity are improving, but the outlook remains uncertain amid global risks. The Bank said it will remain cautious and data-driven, focusing on price stability and full employment.

Analysts expect the RBA to keep interest rates unchanged.

Tentative – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

It’s a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In August, U.S. job openings were unchanged at 7.2 million, while hires and separations both held steady at 5.1 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Quits remained at 3.1 million and layoffs at 1.7 million, showing little movement across industries and indicating a stable but subdued labor market.

Economists expect job openings to remain steady.

23:45 – New Zealand: Employment Change q/q (NZD)

In September 2025, filled jobs fell 1.1% for men and 0.1% for women compared with a year earlier, marking the first time female-filled jobs slightly exceeded male ones. Job declines were largest among younger workers, while total gross earnings rose 1.4% to $15.5 billion.

Economists anticipate filled jobs will tick higher by 0.1%

Wednesday, November 5

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The ADP Non-farm Employment Changetracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors, based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million US employees.

Employment growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In September, US private employers cut 32,000 jobs, according to ADP’s revised data. The rebenchmarking reduced earlier estimates by 43,000 jobs, confirming that hiring momentum continues to slow as employers remain cautious despite earlier economic strength.

Economists expect employment to rise by 28,000.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In September, US services activity stalled, with the ISM Services PMI at 50%, signaling no growth for the first time since 2010. Business activity slipped into contraction at 49.9%, while new orders barely expanded, and employment remained weak. Prices stayed elevated, indicating persistent cost pressures despite slowing demand.

Analysts forecast the index to rise to 50.8.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

The Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration. It gauges the volume (barrels) of commercial crude oil held by US companies, influencing global oil prices. Increasing stocks signal reduced oil demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil barrel prices.

US crude oil inventories fell by 6.9 million barrels to 416 million in the week ending October 24, about 6% below the five-year average. Refinery runs and fuel production declined, while total petroleum inventories dropped by 15.9 million barrels. Gasoline and distillate stocks also fell, but propane inventories rose, remaining well above seasonal norms.

Economists expect inventories to decline by 3.00 million barrels.

Thursday, November 6

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target while supporting sustainable economic growth and employment. It adopts a forward-looking, medium-term strategy to ensure inflation remains stable and sustainable.

In September, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate at 4% and reduce government bond holdings by £70 billion over 12 months. Inflation eased to 3.8% in August but may rise slightly before returning toward the 2% target. The MPC said policy will stay cautious and data-dependent as growth remains subdued and inflation risks persist.

Analysts expect the MPC to keep the Bank Rate unchanged.

Friday, November 7

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Canada Employment Change shows a change in the number of officially employed Canadians in the reported month.

The indicator is used when measuring Canada’s labor market. Indicator growth can positively affect CAD quotes.

In September, employment in Canada rose by 60,000 (+0.3%), driven by gains in full-time and public sector jobs, partly offsetting declines in the previous two months. The employment rate edged up to 60.6%, though it remains below its early 2025 peak.

Economists expect employment to decline by 4,000.

Tentative – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Non-farm Payrolls report reveals the number of new jobs created during the given month in all non-agricultural sectors of the US.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

Due to the US government shutdown, the report’s publication was postponed.

Company Earnings (November 3 – 7)

Tuesday, November 4: PFE (Pfizer Inc.)

Tuesday, November 4: BP (BP p.l.c.)

Wednesday, November 5: MCD (McDonald’s Corporation)

Wednesday, November 5: DVN (Devon Energy Corporation)

Conclusion

The first week of November brings a packed calendar of high-impact events that could shape market sentiment across currencies, commodities, and equities. With key inflation data, central bank rate decisions, and major U.S. employment indicators on deck, traders should brace for volatility and shifting expectations around global monetary policy. Meanwhile, corporate earnings from major firms like Pfizer, BP, McDonald’s, and Devon Energy may add further direction to market trends, setting the tone for the weeks ahead.