Weekly Recap: Rate Cuts, Earnings Beats, and Economic Caution Define Late October (October 27 – 31, 2025, Recap)

The final week of October featured a series of key central bank decisions, economic data releases, and major corporate earnings reports. Inflation data from Australia showed quarterly CPI rising 1.3%, while the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve both cut rates by 25 basis points amid slowing growth and soft labor conditions. The Bank of Japan and European Central Bank kept policy steady, signaling caution ahead. In China, manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low, underscoring ongoing trade and demand pressures.

Global markets reflected mixed sentiment, with moderate gains in equities, weaker commodity prices, and varied currency moves. The week also saw a heavy slate of US corporate earnings, where tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple delivered strong results, while Meta and eBay lagged. Energy majors ExxonMobil and Chevron reported resilient output but weaker profits, and Caterpillar outperformed despite margin pressures.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Wednesday, October 29

02:30 am – Australia: CPI q/q (AUD)

In September, Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% for the quarter and 3.2% over the year, driven mainly by housing (+2.5%), recreation and culture (+1.9%), and transport (+1.2%). Trimmed mean inflation increased to 3.0%, marking its first rise since 2022. Electricity prices jumped 9.0% for the quarter and 23.6% annually as state rebates expired. Property rates saw their largest increase in over a decade (+6.3%), while rent inflation eased to 3.8%. Food inflation remained steady at 3%, and fuel prices rose slightly. This release marks the final quarterly CPI before Australia transitions to a monthly CPI measure from November 2025.

The AUDUSD pair decreased by 0.16% on the day.

15:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, citing ongoing economic weakness and the effects of US trade actions. The Bank expects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.6% in 2027, as exports and business investment gradually improve.

Canada’s economy contracted 1.6% in the second quarter, with trade-sensitive sectors such as autos, steel, and lumber hit hard, though consumer and government spending remain supportive. The unemployment rate stood at 7.1% in September, reflecting a soft labor market and slowing wage growth.

Inflation was 2.4% in September, with underlying measures near 2.5%, and is expected to stay close to the 2% target over the forecast horizon. The Bank said the current rate level is appropriate to balance price stability and growth but emphasized readiness to adjust policy if conditions change.

USDCAD ticked lower by 0.02% compared to the previous day.

20:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75%–4%, citing moderate economic growth, slower job gains, and elevated inflation. Policymakers noted increased downside risks to employment and maintained their commitment to achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation over the long run. The Fed also announced it will conclude the reduction of its securities holdings on December 1. Future policy decisions will depend on incoming data and the balance of risks, with officials ready to adjust rates if economic conditions change.

The EURUSD pair edged down by 0.43% on the day.

Thursday, October 30

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% but signaled that a rate hike could come as soon as December, depending on wage growth trends. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank wants to see more data on the “initial momentum” of next year’s wage negotiations before deciding. Two board members again pushed for an immediate hike to 0.75%, underscoring a growing divide within the policy board.

Despite Ueda’s hawkish tone, the yen weakened sharply, hitting its lowest level since mid-February against the US dollar. Analysts believe the BOJ is edging closer to tightening policy, with inflation staying above 2% and Japan’s economy showing resilience despite US trade pressures. Most economists expect a rate increase by early 2026, possibly as soon as the next policy meeting in December.

The USDJPY pair increased by 0.92% from the previous day.

Tentative – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

The report was postponed due to the US government shutdown.

15:15 – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the deposit rate at 2.00%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%. Policymakers said inflation remains close to the 2% medium-term target, and the overall outlook is broadly stable, supported by a resilient labor market and earlier rate cuts.

The ECB maintained a cautious, data-dependent approach amid ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks. It also confirmed that its asset purchase and pandemic emergency portfolios continue to decline as reinvestments have stopped. The Governing Council reiterated its readiness to adjust all policy tools if needed to ensure inflation remains anchored around the 2% target and to safeguard smooth monetary transmission across

The EURUSD fell by 0.31% compared to the previous day.

Friday, October 31

03:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNH)

China’s manufacturing activity weakened further in October, with the official PMI falling to 49.0 — its lowest in six months and below expectations of 49.6. The downturn reflected declines in production, new orders, and employment, extending the sector’s contraction since April amid renewed US trade tensions. Non-manufacturing activity edged up slightly to 50.1, supported by holiday-related services. Despite a brief trade truce with Washington, analysts warned that China’s economic outlook remains fragile, with sluggish domestic demand and lingering geopolitical risks.

The USDCNH pair ticked up 0.16% on the day.

14:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Canada’s real GDP fell 0.3% in August, reversing most of July’s 0.3% gain. Goods-producing industries declined 0.6%, marking their fifth contraction this year, while services-producing industries slipped 0.1%—their first decline in six months—led by weakness in transportation, warehousing, and wholesale trade.

The USDCAD increased by 0.16% from the previous day.

Tentative – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

The report was postponed due to the US government shutdown.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   Crude oil prices decreased by 0.91% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   Brent was down 1.69% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 2.71% weekly decrease
4. Silver
   XAGUSD increased by 0.08% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 0.66%
2. DJIA was up by 0.64%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 1.84%

Top Gainers

1. Cambium Networks Corporation (CMBM) 360.43%
2. HCM III Acquisition Corp. (HCMA) 264.18%
3. Charming Medical Limited (MCTA) 217.14%

Top Losers

1. Gaotu Techedu Inc. (GOTU) -88.26%
2. Quhuo Limited (QH) -86.57%
3. Kandal M Venture Limited (FMFC) -78.77%

Company Earnings (October 27 – 31)

Tuesday, October 28: V (Visa Inc.)

Tuesday, October 28: PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.)

Tuesday, October 28: EA (Electronic Arts Inc.)

Wednesday, October 29: MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)

Wednesday, October 29: GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.)

Wednesday, October 29: META (Meta Platforms, Inc.)

Wednesday, October 29: CAT (Caterpillar Inc.)

Wednesday, October 29: EBAY (eBay Inc.)

Thursday, October 30: AAPL (Apple Inc.)

Thursday, October 30: AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)

Thursday, October 30: MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.)

Friday, October 31: XOM (Exxon Mobil Corporation)

Friday, October 31: CVX (Chevron Corporation)

Visa reported stronger-than-expected results, with revenue of $10.17 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.69 (GAAP) or $2.98 (adjusted), above analyst expectations of about $2.85. Growth was fueled by resilient consumer spending and solid transaction momentum across the US, Asia Pacific, and cross-border markets. The company highlighted progress on its next-generation VisaNet and AI-ready “Visa as a Service” platform, positioning it to capture emerging payment trends. Management expects continued double-digit adjusted earnings growth, disciplined expense control, and strong shareholder returns through higher dividends and buybacks.

V’s stock fell by 1.91% compared to the previous week.

PayPal delivered a strong third quarter, with revenue up 7.3% to $8.42 billion and non-GAAP EPS rising 11.7% to $1.34, beating expectations. Total payment volume grew 8.4% to $458 billion, and active accounts reached 438 million. The company raised its full-year earnings outlook and reaffirmed free cash flow guidance of $6–7 billion, while continuing major share buybacks totaling $1.5 billion in the quarter.

PYPL shares edged down 0.72% from the previous week.

Electronic Arts reported a 13% year-over-year drop in sales for the September quarter as it prepares to go private in a $55 billion deal involving Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Affinity Partners, and Silver Lake. The company suspended its earnings calls and forward guidance ahead of the transaction, expected to close by next spring.

EA shares ticked lower by 0.39% compared to the previous week.

Microsoft reported better-than-expected quarterly results, with revenue up 18% to $77.67 billion and EPS of $3.72, driven by 40% growth in Azure cloud sales. However, shares fell nearly 4% after management forecast faster spending growth this year, with capital expenditures reaching $34.9 billion to expand AI infrastructure.

MSFT shares fell by 1.11% compared to the previous week.

Alphabet reported record quarterly revenue of $102.35 billion, topping estimates and marking its first time above $100 billion. Adjusted EPS rose to $3.10, well above expectations. Cloud revenue jumped 35% to $15.15 billion, supported by strong AI demand and a $155 billion customer backlog. The company raised its 2025 capital spending guidance to $91–93 billion as it expands data center capacity. Shares rose 5% in after-hours trading.

GOOGL shares surged 8.18% from the previous week.

Meta reported strong third-quarter results, with revenue up 26% to $51.24 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.25, both above expectations. However, shares fell 9% after the company booked a one-time $15.93 billion tax charge tied to new US legislation. Meta also raised its full-year expense outlook and increased 2025 capital spending plans to $70–72 billion, citing heavy investment in AI infrastructure.

META shares fell by 12.19% over the past week.

Caterpillar’s quarterly results showed a 10% rise in sales but a 3% drop in operating profit, as higher tariffs and manufacturing costs eroded margins. The adjusted operating margin fell to 17.5%, highlighting weak cost control and pricing power. Resource Industries profits plunged 19%, while Energy & Transportation offset some losses with 17% growth. Rising capital spending and inventories are straining cash flow, and a higher tax rate adds pressure. Despite these challenges, Caterpillar returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

CAT shares rose 10.43% compared to the previous week.

eBay reported a strong third quarter with revenue of $2.8 billion, up 9%, and gross merchandise volume of $20.1 billion, up 10%. Net income rose to $597 million, or $1.28 per share. CEO Jamie Iannone said eBay’s use of AI and new initiatives in shipping, live commerce, and circular fashion are deepening customer engagement and positioning the company for long-term growth.

EBAY shares fell by 16.35% over the past week.

Apple reported strong fourth-quarter results with EPS of $1.85, beating estimates by $0.11, and revenue rising 8.7% year over year to $102.47 billion. With a trailing EPS of $6.59 and a P/E ratio of 41.03, the company expects earnings to grow 12.6% next year to $8.20 per share.

APPL shares increased by 2.87% compared to the previous week.

Amazon posted strong third-quarter results, with revenue of $180.17 billion and EPS of $1.95, both above estimates. AWS revenue rose 20.2% to $33 billion, its fastest growth since 2022, driven by strong AI demand. The company raised its 2025 capital spending forecast to $125 billion as it expands cloud and AI infrastructure. Shares jumped over 13% in after-hours trading.

AMZN shares rose by 8.92% over the past week.

Merck beat third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, reporting adjusted EPS of $2.58 and revenue of $17.28 billion, driven by strong Keytruda sales, which topped $8 billion for the first time. The company narrowed its full-year profit outlook and lowered its estimated tariff impact while continuing cost-cutting efforts and preparing for Keytruda’s 2028 patent expiration.

MRK shares fell by 1.73% from the previous week.

ExxonMobil reported third-quarter earnings of $7.5 billion, or $1.76 per share, with operating cash flow of $14.8 billion and free cash flow of $6.3 billion. The company returned $9.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks and raised its quarterly dividend to $1.03 per share. Production hit records in Guyana and the Permian Basin as ExxonMobil advanced major projects and maintained strong financial discipline despite lower year-to-date earnings.

XOM shares fell by 0.89% over the past week.

Chevron beat earnings and revenue estimates despite a 21% drop in net income to $3.54 billion, or $1.82 per share, as lower oil prices and Hess-related costs weighed on results. Adjusted EPS of $1.85 topped forecasts, with revenue at $49.73 billion. Oil production hit a record 4.1 million barrels per day, boosted by the Hess acquisition and strong output from the Permian, Gulf of Mexico, and Kazakhstan. Shares rose over 3% following the report.

CVX shares rose 1.39% from the previous week.

Conclusion

The final week of October underscored a cautious yet resilient global economic environment. Central banks leaned toward policy flexibility amid slowing growth and persistent inflation, while data from China and Canada highlighted soft industrial activity. In markets, tech leaders drove equity gains with strong earnings despite rising capital expenditures, whereas energy majors and industrials faced margin pressures from weaker oil prices and higher costs. Overall, the week reflected mixed sentiment but steady investor confidence heading into November.