The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for March 30- April 3, 2026

Overview

This week’s calendar features several high-impact economic releases from Canada and the United States, with markets set to focus heavily on labor data, consumer activity, and business sentiment. Key reports include Canada’s GDP, US job openings, ADP employment, retail sales, ISM manufacturing data, unemployment claims, and Friday’s closely watched Non-Farm Payrolls report. Alongside the economic events, investors will also monitor earnings from Nike, Conagra Brands, and Acuity for additional insight into corporate performance and consumer demand.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+3) – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Wednesday 17:00 (GMT3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Tuesday, March 31

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced, minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.

Real GDP edged up 0.2% in December, supported by gains in both services and goods-producing sectors. Services were the main driver, also rising 0.2%, with strength in wholesale trade, the public sector, and transportation and warehousing. Goods-producing industries increased 0.2% as well, led by manufacturing and utilities. In total, 11 of 20 industrial sectors posted growth during the month.

Economists expect no change in the upcoming release.

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

The JOLTS Job Openings report is a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

US job openings were largely unchanged at 6.9 million in January, while hiring held steady at 5.3 million, and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits remained at 3.1 million and layoffs and discharges at 1.6 million, pointing to a labor market that stayed broadly stable at the start of the year.

Economists anticipate 6.90M job openings in the upcoming release.

Wednesday, April 1

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Changetracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors, based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million US employees.

Employment growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

US private employers added 63,000 jobs in February, marking the strongest monthly job growth since November 2025. Hiring was led by gains in construction and education and health services. Pay growth remained solid, particularly for workers staying in their current jobs, but hiring was concentrated in only a few sectors.

Economists expect a reading of 42,000 in the next release.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

US retail sales dipped 0.2% in January to $733.5 billion but were still 3.2% higher than a year earlier. Nonstore retailers led annual growth, while food services and drinking places also posted solid gains.

Economists expect a growth reading of 0.4% in the next release.

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

US manufacturing expanded in February for a second straight month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI easing slightly to 52.4 from 52.6 in January. New orders and production stayed in growth territory, but both slowed, while employment remained in contraction. A sharp rise in prices was a key concern, as the Prices Index jumped to its highest level since June 2022.

Economists expect a growth reading of 52.3 in the next release.

Thursday, April 2

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

Jobless claims remained low, with the 4-week average for initial claims edging down to 210,500. Insured unemployment was unchanged at a 1.2% rate, while the number of people receiving benefits fell by 32,000 to 1.819 million, the lowest level since May 2024. The 4-week average for insured unemployment also declined to its lowest level since October 2024.

Analysts expect unemployment claims to tick up by 212,000 in the next report.

Friday, April 3

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

US nonfarm payrolls slipped by 92,000 in February, while the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4%. The decline was partly driven by a drop in health care employment related to strike activity, while information and federal government jobs also continued to weaken.

Economists expect the US economy to add 56,000 jobs in the next report.

Company Earnings (March 30 – April 3)

Tuesday, March 31: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

Wednesday, April 1: CAG (Conagra Brands, Inc.)

Thursday, April 2: AYI (Acuity Inc.)

Conclusion

In conclusion, this week’s releases could play an important role in shaping expectations for economic growth and the outlook for the US dollar. Labor market data will be especially important, with investors watching for signs of resilience or slowdown, while retail sales and manufacturing figures will offer a clearer view of consumer demand and business activity. At the same time, earnings from Nike, Conagra Brands, and Acuity may provide additional clues on corporate conditions and broader market sentiment.