Markets Caught Between Slowing Growth and Inflation Pressure (March 23 – 27, 2026 Recap)

Overview

Global markets spent the week digesting a heavy run of economic data, corporate earnings, and shifting risk sentiment. Flash PMI readings from Germany, the UK, and the US pointed to slower growth and rising cost pressures, while inflation updates from Australia and the UK kept price trends firmly in focus. At the same time, US labor market data continued to show resilience, even as investors weighed weaker retail sales, mixed commodity performance, falling equity indices, and a fresh batch of corporate earnings.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, March 24

10:30 am – Germany: Flash PMI (EUR)

Germany’s private sector still expanded in March, but growth slowed as services weakened. The Flash Composite PMI fell to 51.9 from 53.2, while the Services PMI dropped to 51.2, a seven-month low. Manufacturing was the brighter spot, with output and new orders rising, pushing the Manufacturing PMI to 51.7, its highest in 45 months.

The report suggests the war in the Middle East is driving higher costs, more supply-chain disruption, and weaker business confidence. While some manufacturers benefited from customers bringing forward orders, overall sentiment softened, and employment continued to decline.

The EURUSD was little changed, edging down 0.04% on the day.

11:30 am – UK: Flash PMI (GBP)

UK private sector growth slowed sharply in March, with the Composite PMI falling to 51.0 as both services and manufacturing lost momentum. At the same time, input cost inflation jumped to its highest in just over three years, driven by rising energy, fuel, and transport costs linked to the war in the Middle East.

GBPUSD declined by 0.12% in the session.

15:45 – USA: Flash PMI (USD)

US business activity growth slowed in March, with the Composite PMI slipping to 51.4 as services weakened. At the same time, prices rose sharply due to higher energy costs and supply-chain strain linked to the war in the Middle East, while manufacturing held up better than services.

USDJPY rose 0.17% on the day.

Wednesday, March 25

02:30 am – Australia: CPI m/m (AUD)

Prices were 3.7% higher in February 2026 than a year earlier, slightly lower than the 3.8% annual inflation rate recorded in January. The biggest drivers of higher prices were housing, food and non-alcoholic drinks, and recreation and culture.

Underlying inflation, which strips out some of the more volatile price moves, stayed at 3.3%, suggesting core price pressures were steady. On a monthly basis, overall prices were flat in February in original terms, though they rose 0.2% after seasonal adjustment.

AUDUSD was down 0.68% on the session.

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

UK inflation was steady in February, with CPI at 3.0% and CPIH at 3.2% year-on-year. Core inflation edged higher, while clothing pushed prices up, and lower motor fuel prices helped offset some of the increase.

GBPUSD dropped 0.29% during the session.

Thursday, March 26

14:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

US jobless claims remained low in the latest week, suggesting the labor market is still holding up well. Initial claims rose slightly to 210,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.819 million, the lowest since late May 2024, and the insured unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 1.2%.

The EURUSD lost 0.28% over the course of the day.

Friday, March 27

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

UK retail sales volumes fell 0.4% in February after a strong rise in January, as supermarket and online sales weakened. Still, over the three months to February, retail sales were up 0.7%, helped by stronger non-store sales and firm artwork purchases.

GBPUSD declined 0.51%

Commodities

1. Crude Oil

Crude oil prices increased by 3.13% over the past week

2. Brent Oil

Brent was down 2.99% compared to the previous week

3. Gold

The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 0.04% weekly decrease

4. Silver

XAGUSD increased by 2.66% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 2.79%
2. DJIA was down 1.64%
3. NASDAQ 100 decreased by 3.90%

Top Gainers

1. urban-gro, Inc. (UGRO) 707.80%
2. EpicQuest Education Group International Limited (EEIQ) 265.45%
3. Mangoceuticals, Inc. (MGRX) 200.80%

Top Losers

1. Ridgetech, Inc. (RDGT) -98.56%
2. Linkers Industries Limited (LNKS) -97.10%
3. Megan Holdings Limited (MGN) -96.41%

Company Earnings (March 23 – 27)

Tuesday, March 24: GME (GameStop Corp.)

Wednesday, March 26: CTAS (Cintas Corporation)

Wednesday, March 26: PAYX (Paychex, Inc.)

GameStop reported stronger profitability for Q4 and full-year 2025 despite lower sales, with Q4 net income of $127.9 million and diluted EPS of $0.22. For the full year, net income rose to $418.4 million, while cash and marketable securities climbed to $9.0 billion.

GME shares declined 2.08% over the past week.

Cintas Corporation posted record Q3 2026 results, with revenue rising 8.9% year over year to $2.84 billion and diluted EPS up 9.7% to $1.24. Strong margins and profit growth supported a higher full-year outlook, while the planned UniFirst acquisition was highlighted as a key strategic move.

CTAS dropped 7.60% over the past week.

Paychex posted strong third-quarter results, with revenue rising 20% to $1.8 billion and diluted EPS up 9% to $1.56. Growth was supported by the Paycor acquisition, while the company also returned more than $1.5 billion to shareholders year to date.

PAYX shares edged 0.94% lower last week.

Conclusion

In summary, the week highlighted a market environment shaped by slower growth, persistent inflation pressures, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. Economic data from major economies pointed to softer momentum, while higher input costs and supply-chain concerns continued to weigh on sentiment. Against this backdrop, commodities and equities delivered mixed performances, and corporate earnings showed that company-specific strength was not always enough to shield shares from broader market caution.