The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for January 12 – 16, 2026

This week features several high-impact economic releases from the US and the UK that could drive volatility across major currencies. Key inflation data, consumer spending figures, growth numbers, and labor market indicators will offer fresh insight into the health of the economy and the outlook for interest rates. In addition, major US banks begin reporting earnings, adding another potential catalyst for market moves.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

Thursday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Tuesday, January 13

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, reflecting spending patterns of urban consumers and wage earners. It includes indexes such as CPI-U for all urban consumers and CPI-W for urban wage earners, which cover over 90% of the US population. CPI tracks inflation by comparing current prices to a reference base period.

US consumer inflation rose slightly, with prices increasing at a moderate pace. Overall prices are up 2.7% year over year, indicating that inflation has eased from previous levels.

Higher energy costs were a key driver of recent price increases, while food prices rose only modestly. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained steady, suggesting underlying inflation pressures are still contained.

Market expectations point to a 0.3% increase in the next report.

Wednesday, January 14

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the month-over-month change in US retail sales. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

US retail and food service sales were largely unchanged, indicating that consumer spending remains steady. Total sales were about $732.6 billion, up 3.5% compared with a year earlier.

Online retailers continued to show strong growth, with sales up 9% from last year, while spending at restaurants and bars rose just over 4%. Overall, the data suggests stable consumer demand, with strength concentrated in online shopping and food services.

Economists expect retail sales to grow by around 0.4% in the next report.

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by producers for goods, services, and construction. The PPI covers a broad range of industries and is used alongside other economic indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes from the buyer’s perspective. Growth in the index can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% after a brief decline earlier. Over the past year, producer prices have been up 2.7%, indicating steady inflation pressure.

The increase was mainly driven by higher goods prices, which rose 0.9%, while prices for services were unchanged. When excluding food, energy, and trade services prices edged up just 0.1% and are higher by 2.9% compared with a year earlier.

Overall, the data point to moderate producer-level inflation, led primarily by goods rather than services.

Market expectations point to a modest 0.3% increase in the next report.

Thursday, January 15

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) m/m represents the value of all goods and services produced in the UK in the current month compared to the previous month. The GDP calculation also includes expenditure on manufactured goods and provided services. GDP growth may have a positive effect on the pound’s quotes.

The economy slightly shrank, with total output falling by 0.1% over the latest three-month period. This marks the first time in nearly two years that economic growth has turned negative, following several months of very weak expansion.

The decline was mainly driven by a sharp drop in manufacturing, especially car production, which fell heavily and had the biggest impact on overall growth. Construction activity also weakened, while the services sector stalled, continuing a recent pattern of slowing momentum.

Overall, the figures suggest the economy is losing steam, with weakness spreading across key sectors.

Economists expect no change in the next report.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

New claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly, with about 208,000 people filing for the first time. Despite the increase, the four-week average fell to its lowest level in several months, suggesting the job market remains relatively strong.

The unemployment insurance rate held steady at 1.2%. The number of people continuing to receive benefits increased, but overall levels remain low by historical standards, pointing to a labor market that is cooling slightly but still resilient.

Economists forecast around 210,000 new jobless claims in the next report.

Company Earnings (January 12 – 16)

Tuesday, January 13: JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co.)

Tuesday, January 13: DAL (Delta Air Lines, Inc.)

Wednesday, January 14: BAC (Bank of America Corporation)

Wednesday, January 14: WFC (Wells Fargo & Company)

Wednesday, January 14: C (Citigroup Inc.)

Thursday, January 15: MS (Morgan Stanley)

Conclusion

In summary, this week’s data will be closely watched for confirmation that inflation continues to cool without a sharp slowdown in growth. With US inflation, spending, and labor figures alongside UK growth data and major earnings releases, markets are likely to remain sensitive to surprises, making risk management and timing especially important for traders.