Manufacturing Struggles, Jobs Hold Firm, and Inflation Cools (January 5 – 9 Recap)

This weekly review highlights the key economic data releases, market moves, and corporate earnings that shaped trading sentiment over the past week. From U.S. manufacturing and jobs data to inflation updates across major economies, the period offered fresh insight into growth, price pressures, and labor market conditions, while equities, currencies, and commodities reacted to shifting economic signals.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Monday, January 5

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing weakened again in December, shrinking for the 10th straight month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 47.9. New orders and hiring remain weak, prices stayed high, and companies cut inventories and imports, signaling caution. Only a few industries, mainly electronics, saw growth, while most of the sector continues to struggle.

The EURUSD ticked up 0.04% on the day.

Wednesday, January 7

02:30 am – Australia: CPI m/m (AUD)

Inflation continued to ease in November, with consumer prices rising 3.4% over the past year, down from 3.8% in October. Housing, food, non-alcoholic drinks, and transport were the biggest drivers of higher prices. On a monthly basis, prices were largely unchanged, showing limited short-term pressure. Trimmed mean inflation, a key underlying measure watched by central banks, also edged lower to 3.2%, reinforcing signs that inflation is gradually cooling.

The AUDUSD fell by 0.26% from the previous day.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

US services activity stayed strong in December, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 54.4, its highest level of the year. Business activity, new orders, and employment all improved, showing solid demand, while price pressures eased slightly. Overall, the services sector ended the year on a positive note despite some ongoing cost and supply challenges.

The euro edged lower against the dollar, with EURUSD down 0.07%.

Thursday, January 8

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Consumer prices were flat in December 2025, with the CPI unchanged from the previous month. Inflation was very low at 0.1% compared with a year earlier, and average inflation for 2025 stood at just 0.2%, showing minimal price pressure overall.

USDCHF closed the session 0.24% higher.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

New US jobless claims rose slightly in early January, with 208,000 people filing for unemployment benefits, but overall layoffs remain low. The four-week average fell to its lowest level since April, pointing to a still-strong labor market. The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 1.2%, although the number of people continuing to receive benefits edged higher.

EURUSD declined by 0.24% during the session.

Friday, January 9

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Employment was largely unchanged in December, but the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% as more people looked for work. Job gains were seen among older workers and in health care and personal services, while youth employment declined and some service industries lost jobs. Quebec added jobs, while Alberta and Saskatchewan saw losses, and wage growth slowed slightly compared with November.

USDCAD climbed 0.37% during the session.

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

US job growth was modest in December, with payrolls increasing by 50,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. Hiring continued in areas like restaurants, health care, and social services, while retail jobs declined.

The USDJPY rose by 0.59% from the previous session.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

Consumer confidence improved slightly for a second month in a row, reaching its highest level since September 2025. Lower-income households felt more positive, but sentiment fell among higher-income consumers. Overall confidence remains well below last year’s level, as people are still concerned about high prices and a weakening job market, and remain cautious about the broader economy.

EURUSD fell by 0.14% on the day.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

People’s expectations for inflation over the next year stayed at 4.2% in January, the lowest level in a year but still higher than in the past. Longer-term inflation expectations edged up to 3.4%, remaining above levels seen in recent years, suggesting concerns about inflation are easing only slowly.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   Crude oil prices increased by 2.51% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   Brent was up 3.65% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 4.09% weekly increase
4. Silver
   XAGUSD increased by 9.77% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 1.57%
2. DJIA was up 2.39%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 2.19%

Top Gainers

1. Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited (ANPA) 282.43%
2. NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NBY) 226.41%
3. Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ZNTL) 172.99%

Top Losers

1. China SXT Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SXTC) -91.33%
2. Smart Digital Group Limited (SDM) -86.60%
3. Mingteng International Corporation Inc. (MTEN) -84.28%

Company Earnings (January 5 – 9)

Wednesday, January 7: STZ (Constellation Brands, Inc.)

Wednesday, January 7: JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.)

Thursday, January 8: AYI (Acuity Inc.)

Constellation Brands reported earnings of $2.88 per share and generated strong cash flow, including $2.1 billion in operating cash flow year to date. It also raised its full-year earnings outlook and announced a quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share.

STZ shares rose 4.13% from the previous week.

Jefferies posted mixed fourth-quarter results, with earnings of $0.85 per share missing expectations, while revenue came in slightly higher at $2.07 billion. Investment banking revenue jumped 20%, but trading and asset management were weaker, and the company maintained its $0.40 quarterly dividend.

JEF shares fell by 1.91% on the week.

Acuity Brands reported a strong first quarter, with sales up 20% to $1.1 billion and earnings rising to $4.69 per share. Growth was driven by strong business performance and a recent acquisition, and the company reaffirmed its full-year outlook.

AYI shares fell by 12.80% compared to the previous week.

Conclusion

Overall, the week highlighted a mixed economic picture, with ongoing weakness in manufacturing contrasted by resilience in services and labor markets. Inflation pressures continued to ease in several regions, while markets reacted unevenly across asset classes, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. As earnings season unfolds and new data emerges, attention will remain focused on whether signs of cooling inflation and steady employment can support broader market stability in the weeks ahead.