Markets Advance as Economic Data Stays Firm but Risks Persist (March 30- April 3, 2026, Recap)

Overview

The past week featured a busy lineup of major economic releases, offering fresh insight into growth, labor market conditions, consumer spending, and manufacturing activity in both the United States and Canada. Markets also reacted to notable moves in commodities, equities, and corporate earnings, as investors weighed signs of economic resilience against ongoing uncertainty around inflation, trade, and global geopolitical risks.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, March 31

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

In January, real GDP rose 0.1%, following a 0.2% increase in December. The economy was supported mainly by goods-producing industries, which grew 0.2% for the second consecutive month. Gains in mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, construction, and utilities outweighed a decline in manufacturing. Services-producing industries were essentially unchanged, as growth in retail trade and finance and insurance was offset by declines in wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing. Overall, 9 of 20 industrial sectors recorded growth during the month.

USD/CAD fell 0.062% on the day.

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

In February, the US labor market showed little change overall. Job openings held steady at 6.9 million, while hires fell to 4.8 million, marking both a monthly decline and a drop from a year earlier. Total separations were unchanged at 5.0 million, with quits steady at 3.0 million and layoffs and discharges unchanged at 1.7 million. The hiring rate slipped to 3.1%, its lowest level since April 2020. Sector-wise, job openings declined in accommodation and food services and in mining and logging, while hires also fell in accommodation and food services and construction. Quits declined in several sectors, including accommodation and food services and wholesale trade, while layoffs rose in retail trade. Overall, the report points to a softer pace in hiring, while job openings and worker turnover remained broadly stable.

EUR/USD rose 0.78% on the day.

Wednesday, April 1

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

In March, private employers added 62,000 jobs, with hiring and pay gains remaining steady overall. Small businesses led job creation for the second straight month, while employment in trade, transportation, and utilities continued to weaken. Job growth remained concentrated in selected sectors, particularly health care, and workers changing jobs saw stronger pay gains during the month.

EUR/USD rose 0.31% on the day.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

In February, US retail and food services sales rose 0.6% from the previous month to $738.4 billion and were 3.7% higher than a year earlier. Over the three-month period from December through February, total sales were up 3.1% compared with the same period last year. Retail sales alone also increased 0.6% from January and 3.5% from a year ago. Online retailers posted one of the strongest gains, with sales up 7.5% year over year, while restaurants and bars saw sales rise 5.2%. Overall, the report suggests consumer spending remained resilient in February.

USD/JPY ticked down 0.038% on the day.

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

In March, US manufacturing activity expanded for a third straight month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 52.7%. New orders and production continued to grow, but employment stayed in contraction, and export orders slipped back into decline. Input costs rose sharply, supplier deliveries slowed further, and many survey comments remained negative, reflecting concerns about tariffs, war-related disruptions, and broader policy uncertainty.

GBP/USD rose 0.60% on the day.

Thursday, April 2

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Initial jobless claims fell to 202,000 in the week ending March 28, down 9,000 from the previous week, suggesting layoffs remained low. The four-week average also declined, pointing to continued stability in the labor market. Meanwhile, insured unemployment was unchanged at a 1.2% rate, though the number of people continuing to receive benefits rose to 1.841 million.

EUR/USD slipped 0.43% on the day.

Friday, April 3

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

In March, the US economy added 178,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3%. Job growth was led by health care, construction, transportation, and warehousing, while federal government employment continued to fall. Broader labor market measures were mostly steady, though the number of marginally attached workers and discouraged workers increased during the month.

EUR/USD ticked up 0.21% on the day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil

Crude oil prices increased by 10.75% over the past week

2. Brent Oil

Brent was up 2.78% compared to the previous week

3. Gold

The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 4.07% weekly increase

4. Silver

XAGUSD increased by 4.69% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 3.29%
2. DJIA was up 2.97%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 3.86%

Top Gainers

1. Cyclerion Therapeutics, Inc. (CYCN) 296.77%
2. PMGC Holdings Inc. (ELAB) 205.88%
3. Axe Compute Inc. (AGPU) 175.00%

Top Losers

1. Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI) -87.31%
2. IO Biotech, Inc. (IOBT) -84.24%
3. Cyabra, Inc. (CYAB) -77.06%

Company Earnings (March 30 – April 3)

Tuesday, March 31: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

Wednesday, April 1: CAG (Conagra Brands, Inc.)

Thursday, April 2: AYI (Acuity Inc.)

Nike reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $11.3 billion, while EPS fell 35% year over year as margins came under pressure. Although the company beat expectations, weak guidance and ongoing weakness in China and profitability weighed on sentiment.

NKE shares fell 13.98% over the past week.

Conagra reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $2.79 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.39. Sales fell 1.9% from a year earlier, and earnings missed estimates, as inflation and margin pressure offset improving volume trends in frozen foods and snacks.

CAG shares rose 0.64% over the past week.

Acuity reported fiscal Q2 2026 net sales of $1.1 billion and diluted EPS of $3.09. The company posted solid growth in sales, margins, and earnings, supported by strong execution and improved profitability.

AYI shares fell 1.59% over the past week.

Conclusion

Overall, the week’s data pointed to an economy that remains resilient but uneven beneath the surface. While growth, consumer spending, and payrolls continued to hold up, softer hiring trends, persistent cost pressures, and mixed corporate results suggest that markets may remain sensitive to incoming data and shifts in the broader risk environment.