Bitcoin Battles Uncertainty as Big Buyers Step In

Introduction

Bitcoin remains at the center of market attention as geopolitical tension, institutional accumulation, and shifting macro expectations continue to shape sentiment. While headlines around Trump and Iran have fueled short-term volatility and pushed prices higher, corporate buyers such as Strategy and Metaplanet are reinforcing the longer-term bullish narrative. At the same time, Bitcoin is trying to recover from its weakest quarter since 2018, with technical signals still pointing to a market caught between caution and opportunity.

Trump-Iran Tensions Spark Bitcoin Surge

Crypto climbed as markets reacted to mixed signals from Donald Trump on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. He warned of severe consequences if Iran does not reopen the waterway, while also saying negotiations are ongoing and a deal could be close, with reports pointing to a possible 45-day ceasefire.

That uncertainty helped lift total crypto market capitalization by about 2.5%, or $70 billion, to $2.44 trillion, while Bitcoin briefly touched $69,500. The rally also triggered around $255 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with most losses hitting short sellers as traders rushed to reposition.

Saylor Signals Strategy’s Next Bitcoin Buy

Michael Saylor signaled that Strategy may resume its regular Bitcoin buying after pausing for a week at the end of March. In a Sunday post on X, he shared a StrategyTracker screenshot with the caption “Back to Work,” a move often seen before the firm announces a new BTC purchase.

Strategy’s last reported buy was on March 23, when it purchased about $77 million worth of Bitcoin. The company mainly funds these buys through sales of its preferred stock, STRC, and estimates suggest it could acquire at least 1,821 BTC based on last week’s fundraising.

Despite the brief pause, Strategy remains committed to expanding its Bitcoin holdings, which currently total 762,099 BTC.

Bitcoin Eyes Rebound After Brutal Q1

Bitcoin had its worst quarter since 2018, dropping about 22% in Q1 2026 as war, tariffs, and a hawkish Federal Reserve weighed heavily on risk assets. The price fell from around $95,000 in February to about $66,700 by the end of the quarter, with losses at one point reaching nearly 35%.

Even so, Bitcoin showed relative strength after the Iran war began, outperforming equities and gold over the same period. Analysts say the weakness looks more like a macro-driven reset than a deeper structural breakdown, with Fed policy and any easing in Middle East tensions seen as the main factors that could shape Bitcoin’s next move in Q2.

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD has remained range-bound since February, with price action oscillating between support at 59,915.29 and resistance at 75,914.51. This prolonged sideways phase suggests the market is still searching for direction, with spot trading near 68,945.

From a trend perspective, the Average Directional Movement Index remains below 20, highlighting weak directional conviction and confirming a non-trending environment. At the same time, Bitcoin continues to trade below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 20-period EMA also stays beneath the 50-period EMA, keeping the broader technical bias tilted to the downside.

Momentum indicators, however, present a more mixed picture. The Momentum oscillator has slipped below the 100 level, pointing to growing downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index has moved back above the neutral 50 threshold, indicating that buyers may be attempting to regain control in the near term. This divergence reflects the lack of a clear trend and reinforces the current state of uncertainty.

On the downside, the February low at 59,915.29 remains the critical support level to watch. A decisive break below that area would likely confirm a stronger bearish shift and open the door toward 60,000 initially, followed by 50,000, with a deeper selloff potentially exposing the 34,000 region.

On the upside, any meaningful recovery would first need to break above 75,915 and then 80,504 to reduce immediate downside risks. Even if that rebound materializes, the 86,000 zone may still act as a significant resistance area where selling pressure could return.

Metaplanet Climbs to No. 3 in Bitcoin Race

Metaplanet bought 5,075 BTC in the first quarter of 2026 for about $405 million, bringing its total holdings to 40,177 BTC. That pushed the Tokyo-listed firm into third place among corporate Bitcoin holders, behind only Strategy and Twenty One Capital.

Its rise was helped not just by its own buying, but also by MARA Holdings selling around 15,000 BTC in March, which dropped MARA below Metaplanet in the rankings. Looking ahead, Metaplanet plans to keep expanding aggressively, targeting 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027.

Conclusion

In summary, Bitcoin remains in a fragile but closely watched position, supported by renewed institutional demand and resilient sentiment despite recent macro and geopolitical shocks. While the broader technical picture still calls for caution, continued corporate accumulation and any easing in external risks could help set the stage for a stronger recovery in the months ahead.