Weekly Recap: Shutdown Stalls Data as Oil Slides, Gold and Silver Lead Weekly Gains (September 29 – October 3, 2025 Recap)

Global data showed mixed signals last week. China’s manufacturing improved slightly, while Australia kept rates steady. US manufacturing and services weakened, and the government shutdown delayed payroll data. Swiss inflation stayed low, pressuring the SNB. Oil prices dropped sharply, while gold and silver gained. US stocks rose about 1%. Jefferies posted record revenue but fell, Nike beat earnings with shares up, and Paychex declined despite solid results.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, September 30

04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

China’s manufacturing activity improved in September, with the official PMI rising to 49.8, its strongest since March but still signaling contraction. A private RatingDog survey showed stronger momentum at 51.2, indicating modest growth driven by equipment, high-tech, and consumer goods. While production and new orders picked up, weak domestic demand and US tariffs continue to weigh on the sector. China’s economy grew 5.3% in the first half of 2025, keeping it on track to meet its 5% annual target despite slowing momentum.

Crude oil fell by 1.38% on the day.

07:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% in September, citing a slower decline in underlying inflation and signs of stronger private demand. Inflation remains within the 2–3% range but may rise slightly in the September quarter. The economy is recovering, supported by rising household incomes and a stronger housing market, while labour conditions remain tight. The Board maintained a cautious stance amid global and domestic uncertainties, reaffirming its focus on price stability and full employment.

The AUDUSD exchange rate increased by 0.55% compared to the previous day.

Wednesday, October 1

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing activity contracted for a seventh straight month in September, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI edging up to 49.1 from 48.7. New orders and employment continued to decline, while production grew modestly and supplier deliveries slowed. Prices remained elevated, and both exports and imports weakened. Overall, the sector showed slight improvement but remained under pressure amid weak demand and rising costs.

The EURUSD edged down 0.03% from the previous day.

Thursday, October 2

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Swiss inflation stayed weak in September, with CPI at 0.2% year-on-year, missing expectations and remaining well below the SNB’s target. The soft data, coupled with safe-haven flows from the US government shutdown, lifted the franc, adding pressure on USDCHF. With inflation undershooting for a second month and growth forecasts weakening, the SNB faces renewed pressure to act but is likely to rely on FX intervention to limit further CHF appreciation.

The USDCHF ticked higher by 0.1% on the day.

Friday, October 3

15:30 – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The US government shutdown halted key economic data releases, including the highly anticipated monthly payrolls report, as the Labor Department suspended operations amid a congressional funding deadlock.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

US services activity stalled in September, with the ISM Services PMI holding at 50, marking no change between expansion and contraction for the first time since 2010. Business activity slipped to 49.9, and employment remained weak at 47.2, while new orders barely grew at 50.4. Prices stayed elevated, signaling persistent cost pressures, as the sector showed broad signs of stagnation amid softer demand and hiring challenges.

The USDJPY rose by 0.17% from the previous day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 6.9% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 6.45% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 3.37% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 4.21% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 1.04%
2. DJIA was up by 1.11%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 1.11%

Top Gainers

1. Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF) 1,914.05%
2. Boqii Holding Limited (BQ) 424.61%
3. Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp. (DFLI) 261.03%

Top Losers

1. KALA BIO, Inc. (KALA) -91.92%
2. Darkiris Inc. (DKI) -90.78%
3. Delixy Holdings Limited (DLXY) -87.30%

Company Earnings (September 29 -October 3)

Monday, September 29: JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.)

Tuesday, September 30: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

Tuesday, September 30: PAYX (Paychex, Inc.)

Jefferies Financial Group reported record third-quarter revenue of $2.05 billion, up 22% year-on-year, driven by a rebound in dealmaking and strong trading activity. Advisory revenue hit an all-time high, supported by rising M&A activity and improved market conditions. The firm also declared a quarterly dividend of 35 cents per share, while executives expressed optimism about sustained growth amid improving market sentiment.

JEF fell 6.42% over the past week.

Nike reported strong Q1 2026 results, with earnings per share of $0.49 beating estimates by $0.22 and revenue rising 1% year-over-year to $11.72 billion, exceeding forecasts. The company’s trailing EPS stands at $1.95 with a P/E ratio of 36.93, and earnings are projected to grow 14.15% next year to $2.34 per share.

NKE shares increased by 3.78% compared to the previous week.

Paychex reported quarterly EPS of $1.22, beating estimates by $0.02, with revenue rising 16.8% year-over-year to $1.54 billion. Despite the strong results, the stock fell amid mixed sentiment and target price revisions. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $1.08, yielding 3.5%, though its high payout ratio of 94.53% raises sustainability concerns.

PAYX stock fell 2.81% over the past week.

Conclusion

Overall, markets reflected a cautious tone last week as mixed economic data, a US government shutdown, and weaker global growth signals weighed on sentiment. Commodity volatility and selective stock gains highlighted ongoing uncertainty, while investors awaited clearer direction from upcoming policy and economic developments.