Volatility Looms as Key Data Hits

This week’s trading landscape is packed with high-impact economic events that could shape market sentiment across equities, currencies, and commodities. Key central bank rate decisions, GDP releases, and closely watched inflation and labor data from the U.S., Canada, China, and Japan will be in sharp focus. With the Nasdaq 100 showing strong upward momentum but early signs of potential exhaustion, and US stocks pausing after a record-setting run, traders will be watching these releases closely for clues on the next market direction.

High Impact Economic Events

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

Wednesday 16:45 (GMT+3) – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

Wednesday 21:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

Thursday 04:30 am (GMT+3) –China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

Thursday Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Chart Analysis

Since bottoming at $16,313.88 on April 7, the Nasdaq 100 Index has staged a strong rally, supported by both technical and fundamental drivers. The first bullish trigger emerged from a failure swing reversal, where the trough at $17,588.02 held above the prior low, followed by a decisive break above the $19,321.50 peak — paving the way for further gains.

This breakout was reinforced by a “Golden Cross” double crossover, with the 20‑period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing above the 50‑period EMA, signaling a broader structural shift in market sentiment and amplifying buying interest.

Momentum readings add weight to the bullish case, with the Momentum Oscillator holding above 100 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50 — both underscoring the strength of the uptrend. However, the emergence of a negative divergence between price action and momentum, alongside the RSI entering overbought territory, raises caution for a potential pause in the advance or even a corrective pullback.

Key Resistance Levels

If buyers maintain control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:

23,521.62: The initial price target is established at $23,521.62, corresponding to the all-time high registered on July 29.

23,949.77: The second level of resistance is seen at $23,949.77.

24,393.28: The third price target is determined at $24,393.28, representing the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, $22,070.96, to the low point, $21,353.31.

24,818.80: An additional price objective is estimated at $24,818.80, mirroring the monthly resistance, R3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

Key Support Levels

If sellers take control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:

22,902.78: The initial support level is established at $22,902.78, representing the daily high marked July 3.

22,169.42: The second support level is seen at $22,169.42, aligning with the monthly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.

21,353.31: The third downside target is $21,353.31, corresponding to the daily low from June 23.

20,567.10: An additional downside target is observed at $20,567.10, reflecting the monthly support, S2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

Fundamentals

After a week of record-breaking gains, US stocks eased on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow dropped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.4%, ending their streak of all-time highs.

The pullback came as investors digested a flood of quarterly earnings reports, with some results disappointing expectations. The Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting on interest rates, with markets widely expecting no immediate change.

Trade tensions also remained in focus, as the US and China discussed extending a pause on planned tariff increases ahead of an August deadline.

Conclusion

With a packed economic calendar and the Nasdaq 100 approaching key resistance levels, markets are entering a potentially volatile phase. Central bank decisions, GDP data, and US labor and inflation figures could act as catalysts for the next big move. While the technical trend remains bullish, emerging signs of exhaustion suggest traders should stay alert for possible pullbacks alongside opportunities if momentum resumes.