The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for September 15 – 19, 2025

The week ahead is packed with high-impact economic events that could drive volatility across global markets. Key inflation and growth indicators will be released in Canada, the US, the UK, New Zealand, and Australia, alongside major central bank policy decisions from the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. With inflation trends, employment data, GDP figures, and rate moves in focus, investors will be closely watching for signals on monetary policy direction and the health of the global economy. Company earnings from Ferguson, General Mills, and FedEx will also add to the week’s market drivers.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Wednesday 16:45 (GMT+3) – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

Wednesday 21:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

Thursday 1:45 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

Thursday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Thursday 14:00 (GMT+3) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

Friday Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

Tuesday, September 16

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

In July, Canada’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.7% year over year, easing from 1.9% in June, mainly due to a 16.1% drop in gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, inflation held steady at 2.5%. The slowdown was partly offset by higher grocery prices and a smaller decline in natural gas costs. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3% or 0.1% seasonally adjusted.

Analysts are anticipating CPI to rise 0.1% in the next update.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

US retail and food services sales advanced in July 2025, reaching $726.3 billion, a 0.5 percent increase from June and 3.9 percent higher than July 2024. Sales for the three-month period from May through July were also up 3.9 percent year over year. The June growth figure was revised upward, showing a 0.9 percent gain instead of the previously reported 0.6 percent.

Retail trade sales rose 0.7 percent from June, and 3.7 percent compared with last year. Nonstore retailers posted the strongest gains, up 8.0 percent year over year, while food services and drinking places grew 5.6 percent from July 2024.

Economists expect retail sales to rise 0.2% month-over-month.

Wednesday, September 17

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.

UK inflation edged higher in July 2025, with CPIH rising 4.2% year over year, up from 4.1% in June, while CPI increased to 3.8% from 3.6%. On a monthly basis, CPIH was unchanged, and CPI rose 0.1%, compared with a 0.2% drop a year earlier.

Transport costs, especially air fares, drove the upward pressure, partly offset by lower housing and household services. Core CPIH eased slightly to 4.2%, while core CPI inched up to 3.8%. Goods inflation rose to 2.7% in both measures, while services inflation held at 5.2% for CPIH and climbed to 5.0% for CPI.

Economists expect CPI to rise 3.8% in the upcoming release.

16:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada announces its decisions on interest rates eight times a year. It is one of the key events influencing the Canadian

dollar quote. The decision is made depending on the current economic conditions and financial outlook in the country.

Changes in the interest rate lead to a short-term volatility of the Canadian dollar. An increase in the interest rate is seen as positive for the national currency.

The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.75% in July 2025, citing uncertainty from US tariffs and global trade tensions. While Canada’s economy shows some resilience, GDP contracted in the second quarter due to weaker exports, and unemployment has edged up. Inflation remains near 2%, with underlying pressures around 2.5%. The Bank signaled it may cut rates if economic weakness deepens and trade-related cost pressures ease.

The Bank of Canada is forecast to lower interest rates by 25 basis points.

21:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy by changing its target range for the federal funds rate, which impacts overnight borrowing rates for banks. Lowering the target, or “easing,” reduces interest rates to stimulate the economy during slow growth, low inflation, or high unemployment. Raising the target, or “tightening,” increases rates to cool an overheating economy, high inflation, or low unemployment. These rate changes affect broader financial conditions, influencing household and business spending, and ultimately impacting economic activity, employment, unemployment, and inflation.

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, noting slower economic growth in the first half of the year, a solid labor market, and still-elevated inflation. Policymakers stressed uncertainty around the outlook and reaffirmed their commitment to maximum employment and 2% inflation. The Fed will continue reducing its securities holdings and remains ready to adjust policy if risks to its goals emerge.

Economists expect the central bank to lower its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points.

Thursday, September 18

1:45 am – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the official measure of economic growth. It is calculated using two methods: the production approach, which measures the total value of goods and services produced minus production costs, and the expenditure approach, which measures final purchases of goods and services, adding exports and subtracting imports. An increase in GDP may have a positive impact on the quotes of the New Zealand dollar (NZD).

New Zealand’s GDP grew 0.8 percent in the March 2025 quarter, after a 0.5 percent rise in December 2024. Despite the quarterly gains, GDP was down 1.1 percent over the year. Expenditure on GDP rose 0.9 percent in the March quarter but declined 0.9 percent year over year.

Economists expect GDP to contract by 0.3% in the July quarter in the upcoming release.

04:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

The Australian Employment Change tracks the monthly variation in the number of officially employed individuals in the country. An increase in employment indicates a stronger labor market and can positively influence the value of the Australian dollar.

In July 2025, Australia’s labor market strengthened as the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% and underemployment eased to 5.9%. Employment rose to 14.64 million, driven by a 60,500 gain in full-time jobs, while part-time jobs declined. The participation rate held at 67.0%, the employment-to-population ratio edged up to 64.2%, and monthly hours worked increased to 1.99 billion.

Analysts expect employment to increase by 21,200 in the next report.

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target while supporting sustainable economic growth and employment. It adopts a forward-looking, medium-term strategy to ensure inflation remains stable and sustainable.

The Bank of England’s MPC voted 5–4 in August 2025 to cut Bank Rate by 0.25 points to 4%. Substantial disinflation has enabled gradual easing, though CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in Q2 and is expected to peak at 4% in September before falling back toward the 2% target. Pay growth remains elevated but is slowing, while GDP growth is subdued and labour market slack is emerging. The MPC signaled a cautious approach to further rate cuts, stressing that policy decisions will remain data-dependent.

Analysts expect the Bank Rate to remain unchanged in the upcoming decision.

Friday, September 19

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy aims to achieve price stability, which is crucial for supporting economic activity. Price stability helps individuals and firms make informed decisions about consumption and investment, ensuring efficient resource allocation. To this end, the Bank set a 2% inflation target (CPI) in 2013 and remains committed to reaching this goal as soon as possible.

At its latest meeting, the Bank of Japan unanimously decided to maintain its monetary policy stance, keeping the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 0.5 percent.

Economists expect the Bank of Japan to leave the policy rate unchanged.

Company Earnings (September 15 -19)

Tuesday, September 16: FERG (Ferguson Enterprises Inc.)

Wednesday, September 17: GIS (General Mills, Inc.)

Thursday, September 18: FDX (FedEx Corporation)

Conclusion

With inflation data, GDP reports, employment figures, and major central bank rate decisions all packed into the week, markets are bracing for heightened volatility. Investors will be watching closely for signals on how policymakers respond to slowing growth and shifting inflation trends. Alongside corporate earnings, these events could set the tone for currencies, equities, and commodities heading into the final stretch of September.