The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for May 11 – 15, 2026

Overview

This week brings several high-impact economic releases that could influence market sentiment and create volatility across the USD and GBP. Investors will focus on US inflation data, producer prices, retail sales, and the UK GDP report for fresh signals on economic strength, price pressures, and consumer demand.

The US CPI and PPI figures will be closely watched for clues on inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve policy expectations. Meanwhile, the UK GDP report will show whether the British economy continued to gain momentum, while US retail sales will offer insight into the health of consumer spending. In addition, several major companies, including Vodafone, Cisco, and Alibaba, are scheduled to report earnings, adding another layer of interest for traders.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

Wednesday 17:30 (GMT3) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

Thursday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Tuesday, May 12

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, reflecting spending patterns of urban consumers and wage earners. It includes indexes like CPI-U for all urban consumers and CPI-W for urban wage earners, covering over 90% of the US population. CPI tracks inflation by comparing current prices to a reference base period.

In March, US inflation picked up sharply. Consumer prices rose 0.9% during the month, compared with a 0.3% increase in February. Over the past year, prices were up 3.3%.

The main reason for the increase was higher energy costs, especially gasoline. Energy prices rose 10.9%, while gasoline prices surged 21.2%, making up most of the monthly rise.

Food prices were flat overall, with restaurant prices slightly higher and grocery prices slightly lower. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose only 0.2%, suggesting that March’s inflation jump was mainly driven by energy rather than broad price increases across the economy.

Economists expect a figure of 0.6% in the next report.

Wednesday, May 13

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by producers for goods, services, and construction. The PPI covers a broad range of industries and is used alongside other economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes from the buyer’s perspective. Growth in the index can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

In March, producer prices rose 0.5%, matching February’s increase and following a 0.6% rise in January. Over the past year, producer prices were up 4.0%, the fastest annual increase since February 2023.

The increase was mainly driven by higher prices for goods, which rose 1.6% during the month. Prices for services were unchanged, meaning businesses did not see much added pressure from service costs.

A closely watched measure that excludes food, energy, and trade services rose 0.2% in March. This suggests that underlying price pressures were still present, but they eased compared with the stronger increases seen in January and February.

Analysts expect producer prices to remain the same.

Thursday, May 14

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures a country’s economic size and health over time, typically quarterly or annually. It can be calculated by totaling the value of goods and services produced, income earned, or spending. Household spending is the largest component, making up about two-thirds of GDP. Growth in GDP signals an expanding economy, but it doesn’t capture all aspects of economic well-being.

In February, the UK economy grew by 0.5%, improving from the 0.1% growth recorded in January and December.

Over the three months to February, GDP also rose by 0.5%, showing that the economy gained momentum after a weaker end to 2025. Services and production both supported growth, rising 0.5% in February, while construction grew by 1.0%.

Compared with the same month a year earlier, the UK economy was 1.0% larger. Overall, the report suggests the UK economy strengthened in February, although construction remained weaker over the broader three-month period.

Economists expect employment to decrease by 0.2%.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

In March, US retail and food services sales rose strongly, showing that consumers continued to spend. Sales increased 1.7% from February to $752.1 billion and were 4.0% higher than in March 2025.

Retail trade sales were also solid, rising 1.9% during the month and 4.2% from a year earlier. Online and other nonstore retailers remained a strong area, with sales up 10.1% compared with last year.

Overall, the report suggests consumer demand stayed healthy in March, although the figures are not adjusted for price changes, meaning part of the increase may reflect higher prices rather than only stronger buying activity.

Economists expect retail sales to increase by 0.6% in the next report.

Company Earnings (May 11 – 15)

Tuesday, May 12: VOD (Vodafone Group Public Limited Company)

Wednesday, May 13: CSCO (Cisco Systems, Inc.)

Wednesday, May 13: BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited)

Conclusion

Overall, this week’s data could play an important role in shaping expectations for the USD and GBP. Stronger-than-expected inflation, producer prices, or retail sales may support the US dollar by reinforcing concerns about persistent price pressures and firm demand. On the other hand, weaker figures could reduce rate expectations and weigh on the currency.

For the UK, the GDP report will be key in showing whether recent economic momentum is continuing. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility around the major releases, especially if the results differ from market expectations.