The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for February 16 – 20, 2026

This week features several high-impact economic releases that may generate increased volatility across major currency pairs. Key inflation, employment, and central bank data from the UK, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Germany, and the United States will offer fresh insight into economic conditions and monetary policy expectations. Traders should remain attentive to these events, as deviations from forecasts often trigger sharp price movements, shifts in interest rate outlooks, and changes in risk sentiment. Proper risk management and awareness of release timings will be essential throughout the week.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Wednesday 03:00 am (GMT+2) – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Tuesday, February 17

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

The Claimant Count Change indicates how many individuals have started claiming unemployment benefits in a specific month.

A rise in the claimant count signifies a labor market experiencing a downturn and might negatively impact the GBP.

In December 2025, the UK Claimant Count increased in the month but decreased in the year, reaching 1.677 million. The latest figure is provisional and subject to revision, with recent revisions generally trending lower.

More broadly, the labour market shows a higher unemployment rate (5.1%), while employment remains broadly stable, and economic inactivity continues to ease.

Economists expect the Claimant Count Change to increase to 22,800 in the next release.

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

Consumer prices rose 2.4% in December compared with a year earlier, slightly faster than November’s 2.2% increase. The pickup was largely due to last year’s temporary tax break, no longer affecting the comparison. Gasoline prices fell and helped limit the overall rise.

On a monthly basis, prices dipped 0.2%, although after seasonal adjustment they increased 0.3%.

Economists anticipate an increase of 0.1%.

Wednesday, February 18

03:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reviews its interest rate policy every six weeks, setting the rate at which loans are provided to commercial banks. This rate is a key instrument of the RBNZ’s monetary policy, aimed at managing the strength of the New Zealand dollar (NZD). A rate increase typically strengthens the NZD by attracting foreign capital and boosting demand for the currency. Consequently, market participants closely monitor changes in the interest rate to determine their potential impact on NZD performance.

In November, the central bank cut the OCR by 0.25% to 2.25%, with future decisions depending on how inflation and the economy develop.

Economists expect the OCR to be left unchanged at the next meeting.

Thursday, February 19

02:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

The Australia Employment Change tracks the monthly variation in the number of officially employed individuals in the country. An increase in employment indicates a stronger labor market and can positively influence the value of the Australian dollar.

In December 2025, the labour market showed modest improvement. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, and employment increased to 14,686,100. Participation, the employment-to-population ratio, and underemployment were unchanged. Hours worked rose, pointing to slightly stronger labour demand.

Economists expect employment to rise by 20,100 in the next release.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

In the week ending February 7, initial jobless claims declined to 227,000, a decrease from the prior week. Despite the drop, the four-week average increased, pointing to a modest uptick in claims trends.

The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%. The number of people receiving benefits rose to 1.862 million, while the four-week average fell to its lowest level in months, indicating overall labor market stability.

Economists anticipate 229,000 new claims.

Friday, February 20

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.

Germany’s manufacturing sector showed signs of improvement in January. Production returned to growth and new orders increased slightly, helping lift the PMI to 49.1, its highest level in three months, though still below the growth threshold of 50.

Cost pressures intensified, while firms continued cutting jobs despite the pickup in output. Overall, the data suggest conditions are stabilising, but the sector remains fragile.

Analysts expect an increase to 49.6.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

Germany’s services sector continued to expand in January, with business activity remaining in growth territory at 52.4, though the pace slowed slightly. Overall economic output improved, supported by rising demand, including stronger export business.

Despite the growth, employment declined at one of the fastest rates since the pandemic. Meanwhile, firms faced rising costs and increased prices, while confidence about the year ahead strengthened.

Economists expect a slight increase to 52.5.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

The UK manufacturing sector strengthened in January 2026, with the PMI rising to 51.8, its highest level in 17 months. Output and new orders grew at a faster pace, and new export orders increased for the first time in four years.

Business confidence improved notably, reaching its highest level since before the 2024 Autumn budget. While employment continued to decline, the pace of job losses slowed. Meanwhile, cost pressures edged higher, contributing to modest price increases.

Economists anticipate a growth rate of 51.5.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

The UK services sector strengthened in January 2026, with the Services PMI rising to 54.0 from 51.4, signalling the fastest growth since August 2025. Business activity, new orders, and export demand all improved, supported by better client confidence and investment sentiment.

Despite stronger activity, employment continued to fall as companies faced rising costs. Firms remained cautiously optimistic about the outlook, while higher expenses contributed to further price increases.

Economists expect a growth rate of 53.4.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

US personal income rose modestly in October and picked up more strongly in November 2025. Disposable income also increased, while consumer spending grew solidly in both months.

Meanwhile, the saving rate edged lower, indicating households spent a larger share of their income. Inflation, as measured by the PCE price index, remained moderate with small monthly increases and annual growth just below 3%.

Analysts forecast a slight increase of 0.3%.

16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

In January 2026, US manufacturing activity strengthened, with the PMI rising to 52.4 and production growing at one of the fastest rates in recent years. However, new orders increased only modestly, indicating that part of the output growth was driven by inventory building rather than robust demand.

Tariffs continued to weigh on exports and raise costs, contributing to stronger price pressures. Hiring edged higher, and business confidence remained steady, though the gap between production and sales suggests potential risks if demand fails to improve.

Analysts anticipate a growth reading of 52.1.

16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

In January 2026, US services activity continued to expand, with the PMI at 52.7, and business activity was supported by stronger sales. Growth, however, remained relatively modest as tariffs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand, particularly from overseas clients.

Employment increased slightly, while inflation pressures stayed elevated but eased compared with late 2025. Overall, the sector showed resilience but with signs of slower momentum.

Economists anticipate a slight increase to 52.8.

Company Earnings (February 16– 20)

Tuesday, February 17: PANW (Palo Alto Networks, Inc.)

Wednesday, February 18: EBAY (eBay Inc.)

Thursday, February 19: PANW (Palo Alto Networks, Inc.)

Conclusion

Market participants face a data-heavy week with multiple high-impact economic releases capable of driving sharp movements across currencies and broader financial markets. Inflation indicators, labour market statistics, and central bank decisions from several major economies will provide important clues about economic momentum and the future path of monetary policy. As these events frequently trigger volatility and rapid repricing, traders should closely monitor the schedule, remain alert to potential surprises, and apply disciplined risk management throughout the week.