The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for December 15 – 19, 2025

This week brings a series of important economic data releases and central bank decisions that could influence global markets. Investors will focus on inflation, employment, and PMI figures from major economies, as well as monetary policy updates from the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. These events will provide key insights into global growth, inflation trends, and interest rate directions. Company earnings from Micron Technology, NIKE, and General Mills may also add to market volatility later in the week.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Tuesday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Tuesday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Tuesday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Tuesday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Tuesday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Tuesday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

Thursday 14:00 (GMT+2) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

Thursday 15:15 (GMT+2) – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

Friday Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Monday, December 15

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

Inflation slowed in October, with consumer prices rising 2.2% from a year earlier, down from 2.4% in September. The drop was mainly due to cheaper gasoline and slower grocery price increases, partly offset by higher cellphone plan costs. Month over month, prices rose 0.2%, or 0.1% after seasonal adjustment.

Analysts expect a 0.1% increase.

Tuesday, December 16

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.

Germany’s manufacturing sector weakened in November, with the PMI falling to 48.2 from 49.6 — signaling a deeper contraction. New orders dropped sharply amid lower demand at home and abroad, especially from Asia, Europe, and North America. Production growth slowed, and factories cut jobs, purchases, and inventories to manage costs. Delivery times lengthened for the third month, while input prices nearly stabilized after long declines. Despite slightly improved optimism for the year ahead, overall business confidence remained subdued.

Analysts expect the manufacturing index to tick higher to 48.6.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

Germany’s service sector grew for a third month in November, though at a slower pace, with the PMI easing to 53.1 from 54.6. New business and hiring rose modestly, while backlogs declined slightly. Inflation pressures continued to ease as firms faced slower cost increases, mainly from wages, and raised their prices more cautiously. Business confidence weakened to its lowest level since June amid concerns about high costs and political uncertainty.

Economists expect the services PMI to come in at 53.0.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

UK manufacturing showed early signs of recovery in November, with the PMI rising to 50.2 — its first reading above 50 in over a year, signaling a return to growth. Output increased for a second month as domestic demand improved and export declines eased. However, job losses continued, and smaller firms lagged behind larger ones. Factory prices fell for the first time in two years, reflecting weaker demand and rising competition. Business confidence reached a nine-month high, supported by hopes of market stability and new investments, though uncertainty around government policy and trade remained.

Economists expect the upcoming manufacturing PMI reading to tick slightly higher to 50.3.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

UK service sector growth slowed in November, with the PMI easing to 51.3 from 52.3, indicating only marginal expansion. New orders fell for the first time since July as weak demand and uncertainty ahead of the Budget weighed on confidence. Employment declined at the fastest pace since February, while rising wages kept costs high. However, firms raised their prices at the slowest rate in nearly five years due to intense competition. Overall business optimism remained positive but softer than in October amid concerns over the UK’s economic outlook and investment slowdown.

Economists expect the upcoming services PMI reading to edge slightly up to 51.7.

15:30 – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

US job growth remained modest in September, with employers adding 119,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. Hiring gains in health care, food services, and social assistance were partly offset by job losses in transportation, warehousing, and the federal government. Overall, employment has changed little since April.

Analysts expect the upcoming labor report to show an increase of 50,000 jobs.

16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing growth continued in November, with the PMI at 52.2 — marking a fourth straight month of expansion. Output and hiring rose, supported by improved confidence, but demand growth slowed sharply as exports weakened amid tariffs. This mismatch between production and sales led to a record buildup in unsold inventories, raising concerns about potential output cuts ahead. Inflation pressures from tariffs persisted, though selling price increases eased due to intense competition.

Economists expect the upcoming manufacturing PMI reading to edge slightly higher to 52.3.

16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

US service sector growth remained solid in November, with the PMI at 54.1, down slightly from October’s 54.8. New business rose at the fastest pace in 2025, supported by stronger demand and improved confidence after the government shutdown ended. Firms added jobs at the quickest rate since June, but rising labor costs and tariffs pushed input prices to a six-month high. Companies raised their prices modestly amid competition, while optimism for the year ahead improved on expectations of stronger economic growth and lower interest rates.

Economists expect the upcoming services PMI reading to edge slightly lower to 54.0.

Wednesday, December 17

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

UK inflation eased in October, with CPIH rising 3.8% over the year, down from 4.1% in September. The regular CPI also slowed to 3.6% from 3.8%. On a monthly basis, both measures rose 0.4%, less than the 0.6% increase a year earlier. The difference between CPIH and CPI mainly reflects housing costs, which make CPIH a broader measure of inflation.

Analysts anticipate a reading of 3.5%.

09:00 am – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

New Zealand’s economy contracted in the June 2025 quarter, with GDP down 0.9% after a similar rise in the previous quarter. GDP per capita fell 1.1%, while real national disposable income rose 0.9%. Overall spending in the economy also declined 0.9%, pointing to weaker economic activity over the year.

Economists expect the economy to grow by 0.8%.

Thursday, December 18

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target while supporting sustainable economic growth and employment. It adopts a forward-looking, medium-term strategy to ensure inflation remains stable and sustainable.

The Bank of England kept interest rates at 4% in November, with a narrow 5–4 vote as some members favored a small cut. Officials said inflation has likely peaked and is easing due to slower wage growth and weaker demand. The economy remains subdued, and risks to inflation are now more balanced. Further rate cuts will depend on continued progress in bringing inflation down.

The BoE is expected to cut the rate by 25 basis points.

15:15 – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

The ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced after the European Central Bank meetings, at which the monetary policy of the eurozone is discussed. The interest rate decisions are taken depending on the inflationary outlook and economic growth.

Cut in deposit rates may have a negative effect on EUR quotes.

The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%. Policymakers said inflation is close to the 2% target and the economy remains resilient despite global challenges. However, uncertainty persists due to trade and geopolitical tensions. The ECB said future rate decisions will depend on incoming data and inflation trends, without committing to a fixed policy path.

Economists expect the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged.

Friday, December 19

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan’s Interest Rate Decision is made 8 times a year. The regulator’s interest rate is used to provide loans to commercial banks. Establishing an interest rate is one of the main tools of the monetary policy used by the Bank of Japan to regulate the strength of its currency.

Interest rate growth can have a positive impact on yen quotes.

The Bank of Japan decided by a 7–2 vote to keep its key short-term interest rate around 0.5%.

Economists anticipate a 25-basis-point increase.

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Retail Sales m/m show the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous month. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.

The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting, and in the development of the UK’s financial and economic policy. The retail sales growth can affect the British pound quotes positively.

UK retail sales fell 1.1% in October, the first decline since May, as shoppers delayed purchases ahead of Black Friday. Sales had risen in the previous two months, with strong demand for clothing and electronics earlier in the quarter. Despite the monthly drop, retail volumes were up 1.1% in the three months to October compared with the previous three months.

Analysts expect retail sales to increase by 0.4%.

Company Earnings (December 15 – 19)

Wednesday, December 17: MU (Micron Technology, Inc.)

Thursday, December 18: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

Thursday, December 18: GIS (General Mills, Inc.)

Conclusion

Overall, this week’s economic calendar is packed with high-impact data and central bank updates that could shape market sentiment heading into year-end. Inflation and employment figures will provide key insights into the health of major economies, while interest rate decisions from the Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan will guide expectations for future monetary policy shifts. Traders and investors should stay alert for increased volatility, especially as markets react to policy announcements and company earnings results from Micron, Nike, and General Mills.