Global Markets Steady as Fed Cuts Rates and Inflation Cools (December 8 – 12, 2025, Recap)

The week ending December 12, 2025, saw central banks in Australia, Canada, the United States, and Switzerland maintain a cautious stance. The Federal Reserve’s 0.25% rate cut signaled concern over slowing job growth, while others kept rates steady amid easing inflation.

Economic data were mixed, with Australia’s labour market showing signs of weakness and the UK economy contracting slightly. Oil prices fell more than 4%, while gold and silver rose 2.4% and 6.1%, reflecting safe-haven demand. Equity markets were uneven, as the Dow gained while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ slipped.

Corporate earnings from Oracle, Adobe, and Costco all exceeded expectations, but investor sentiment remained cautious amid global economic uncertainty.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, December 9

05:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

On December 9, 2025, the Monetary Policy Board decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%. Inflation has dropped sharply since 2022 but has picked up again recently, partly due to temporary factors. The economy is strengthening, driven by higher private spending and a firmer housing market, while the labour market remains tight even as wage growth eases. The Board noted that inflation risks have shifted upward but chose to wait for more evidence before acting, reaffirming its focus on maintaining price stability and full employment.

The AUDUSD pair increased by 0.22% on the day.

Wednesday, December 10

16:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

On December 10, 2025, the Bank of Canada kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. Canada’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, though much of it was driven by trade volatility. Inflation has stayed near the 2% target, supported by lower gas prices and slower food inflation. The labour market is improving, but hiring remains cautious in some sectors. The Bank said the current rate is appropriate to keep inflation stable, while remaining ready to adjust policy if economic conditions change.

The USDCAD fell by 0.4% on the day.

21:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed said the economy is growing at a moderate pace, but job gains have slowed, and unemployment has edged up. Inflation has risen somewhat and remains above the 2% target. The Fed noted higher risks to employment and said it will closely monitor economic data before making further policy changes, reaffirming its commitment to price stability and maximum employment.

The EURUSD rose by 0.11% on the day.

Thursday, December 11

02:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Australia’s unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% in November, but signs of weakness emerged as underemployment rose to 6.2%, the labour force shrank, and participation fell. Full-time jobs dropped sharply, partly offset by more part-time work, while youth unemployment climbed to 10.2%. Economists say the figures show the job market is softening, giving the Reserve Bank reason for caution after it kept interest rates on hold at 3.6% this week.

The AUDUSD fell by 0.24% on the day.

10:30 am – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)

On December 11, 2025, the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 0%. Inflation has fallen to 0%, mainly due to lower hotel, rent, and clothing prices, but is expected to stay within the stable range over the next few years. The Swiss economy slowed in the third quarter, largely because of weaker pharmaceutical exports, though other sectors showed modest growth. The SNB expects modest GDP growth of around 1.5% in 2025 and remains ready to act if needed to maintain price stability.

The USDCHF fell by 0.66% on the day.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

In the week ending December 6, 2025, new US unemployment claims rose to 236,000, up 44,000 from the previous week, showing a small uptick in layoffs. However, continuing claims—the number of people still receiving unemployment benefits—fell to 1.84 million, and the insured unemployment rate edged down to 1.2%. Overall, the data suggest the job market remains relatively stable despite some recent fluctuations.

The EURUSD rose 0.4% on the day.

Friday, December 12

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

The UK economy shrank slightly in the three months to October 2025, with real GDP falling by 0.1%—the first decline since late 2023. Services showed no growth, production dropped 0.5% mainly due to weaker car manufacturing, and construction fell 0.3%. In October alone, GDP also slipped 0.1% as services and construction declined, partly offset by a 1.1% rise in production. Compared with a year earlier, GDP was still up 1.1%, showing modest annual growth despite recent weakness.

The GBPUSD fell by 0.20% on the day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   Crude oil prices decreased by 4.34% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   Brent was down 4.16% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 2.40% weekly increase
4. Silver
   XAGUSD increased by 6.09% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 0.60%
2. DJIA was up 1.15%
3. NASDAQ 100 decreased by 1.99%

Top Gainers

1. Aimei Health Technology Co., Ltd (AFJK) 270.88%
2. HeartBeam, Inc. (BEAT) 215.07%
3. NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NBY) 131.41%

Top Losers

1. WORK Medical Technology Group LTD (WOK) -97.93%
2. Pomdoctor Limited (POM) -92.26%
3. Oriental Culture Holding LTD (OCG) -92.14%

Company Earnings (December 8 – 12)

Wednesday, December 10: ORCL (Oracle Corporation)

Wednesday, December 10: ADBE (Adobe Inc.)

Thursday, December 11: COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation)

Oracle reported strong Q2 fiscal 2026 results, beating expectations with earnings per share of $2.26 versus the expected $1.64. Revenue rose 13% to $16.1 billion, driven by rapid growth in its cloud business—up 33% to $8 billion—with cloud infrastructure revenue jumping 66%. The company highlighted major AI-related contracts with Meta and NVIDIA, boosting its order backlog.

ORCL shares fell 12.69% over the past week.

Adobe reported earnings of $5.50 per share for the quarter ended November 2025, beating expectations of $5.39. Revenue rose 10% year over year to $6.19 billion, also topping forecasts. This marks the fourth straight quarter that Adobe has exceeded both earnings and revenue estimates.

ADBE shares rose 2.94% over the past week.

Costco reported strong Q1 fiscal 2026 results, beating expectations with revenue of $67.31 billion and earnings per share of $4.50. Comparable sales rose 6.4%, while online sales surged 20.5%. Membership fee income jumped 14% to $1.33 billion, reflecting continued customer loyalty. Operating income increased despite higher tariffs and wages, showing strong cost control. Overall, Costco’s results highlight solid global growth, expanding digital momentum, and resilient margins.

COST shares fell by 1.14% over the past week.

Conclusion

In summary, the week reflected a cautious global economic tone, with most central banks holding steady while the Federal Reserve made a modest rate cut to support growth. Mixed economic data and weaker oil prices underscored lingering uncertainty, even as precious metals gained on safe-haven demand. Corporate earnings were solid, but market sentiment remained restrained as investors weighed slowing growth against resilient fundamentals heading into year-end.