The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for August 18 – 22, 2025

Markets face a pivotal week ahead with a heavy lineup of economic data, central bank decisions, and major corporate earnings. Traders will closely watch inflation releases, PMI surveys, and rate decisions that could sway currency markets and risk sentiment. Key highlights include CPI figures from Canada and the UK, monetary policy calls from New Zealand, and PMI data from Germany, the UK, and the US. On the corporate front, earnings from giants like Baidu, Alibaba, Walmart, and Cisco add another layer of potential volatility, setting the stage for active trading opportunities.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Wednesday 05:00 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Services PMI (EUR)

Thursday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Thursday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Services PMI (GBP)

Thursday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Thursday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Services PMI (USD)

Tuesday, August 19

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

In June, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% year over year, up from 1.7% in May. Headline inflation quickened as gasoline prices fell less sharply, while higher costs for durable goods like vehicles and furniture added pressure. Excluding energy, CPI increased 2.7%, still above the headline rate, partly reflecting the April removal of consumer carbon pricing. On a monthly basis, CPI edged up 0.1% (0.2% seasonally adjusted).

Analysts expect a monthly increase of 0.4%.

Wednesday, August 20

05:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reviews its interest rate policy every six weeks, setting the rate at which loans are provided to commercial banks. This rate is a key instrument of the RBNZ’s monetary policy, aimed at managing the strength of the New Zealand dollar (NZD). A rate increase typically strengthens the NZD by attracting foreign capital and boosting demand for the currency. Consequently, market participants closely monitor changes in the interest rate to determine their potential impact on NZD performance.

In July, the Monetary Policy Committee agreed to hold the Official Cash Rate at 3.25 percent.

Economists expect a rate cut of 25 basis points.

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.

UK inflation edged higher in June 2025, with CPIH rising 4.1% year over year (vs. 4.0% in May) and CPI up 3.6% (vs. 3.4%). Monthly inflation stood at 0.3% for both measures. Transport, especially motor fuels, drove the increase, while housing costs partly offset it. Core inflation also ticked up, with CPIH at 4.3% and CPI at 3.7%.

Economists anticipate a reading of 3.7%.

Thursday, August 21

10:30 am – Germany: Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.

Germany’s manufacturing sector saw growth slow in July 2025, with the PMI edging up to 49.1, a 35-month high but still below the 50 threshold. Output rose for a fifth month, though at the weakest pace since March, while new orders and exports lost momentum. Job losses eased to the slowest in nearly two years, and firms cut factory gate prices further amid falling input costs and strong competition. Business confidence remained positive but softened slightly from June’s peak.

Economists project a contractionary reading of 48.8.

10:30 am – Germany: Services PMI (EUR)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

Germany’s services sector returned to growth in July 2025, with the PMI rising to 50.6 from 49.7, its first expansion in four months. Business activity and new orders picked up modestly, driven by domestic demand, while job creation slowed. Inflationary pressures eased further, with input costs and output charges rising at their weakest pace since early 2021. Firms grew more optimistic about the year ahead, supported by expansion plans and expectations of stronger demand.

Analysts project an expansionary reading of 50.5.

11:30 am – UK: Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

UK manufacturing remained in contraction in July 2025, though the downturn eased as the PMI rose to 48.0, a six-month high. Output fell at a slower pace, and business optimism reached a five-month high, but demand stayed weak at home and abroad, and job losses deepened. Input and output price inflation held broadly steady.

Economists expect the PMI to edge up to 48.2.

11:30 am – UK: Services PMI (GBP)

UK services growth slowed in July 2025, with the PMI easing to 51.8 from 52.8 in June, still above the 50 threshold. Business activity expanded modestly, but new work fell at the fastest pace since 2022, and employment saw its sharpest drop since February. Input cost inflation eased to its weakest level this year, while optimism about the year ahead improved.

Analysts project the PMI will rise slightly to 51.9.

16:45 – USA: Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing slipped back into contraction in July 2025, with the PMI falling to 49.8 from 52.9 in June, its first sub-50 reading this year. Output rose only marginally as new orders stagnated and exports declined, while firms cut jobs and reduced inventories after earlier tariff-driven stockpiling. Input and selling price inflation remained steep, though softer than June’s peak, and business confidence weakened amid policy and trade uncertainties.

Economists anticipate the index will register 49.9, signalling continued weakness.

16:45 – USA: Services PMI (USD)

US services growth accelerated in July 2025, with the PMI rising to 55.7 from 52.9, its strongest reading this year. Business activity and new orders expanded sharply, supported by stronger domestic demand, while staffing rose modestly. Tariffs fueled faster increases in input and output prices, and optimism about the year ahead softened slightly.

Analysts anticipate a slower pace of growth, with a forecast of 53.3.

Company Earnings (August 18 – 22)

Wednesday, August 20: BIDU (Baidu, Inc.)

Thursday, August 21: BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited)

Thursday, August 21: WMT (Walmart Inc.)

Conclusion

With inflation prints, PMI releases, and central bank decisions aligning with major corporate earnings, markets are entering a week of heightened sensitivity to data surprises and policy signals. Traders should brace for volatility across currencies, equities, and commodities as each release shapes expectations for growth, inflation, and monetary policy in the months ahead.