Markets Steady Amid Rate Cuts, Inflation Data, and Mixed Earnings (August 11 – 15, 2025 Recap)

The past week saw a mix of central bank policy moves, inflation data, labor market updates, and key earnings reports that influenced currency, commodity, and equity markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia eased policy further, while U.S. inflation gauges offered contrasting signals through CPI and PPI releases. Employment and GDP data from Australia and the UK pointed to steady growth, while U.S. retail sales held firm despite weaker consumer sentiment. Commodities ended the week lower, but equity markets advanced, led by strong gains in the Dow. Corporate earnings were in focus, with Cisco and Deere reporting results that moved their shares sharply.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, August 12

07:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

The RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, bringing total easing this year to 75 basis points. Inflation has moderated, with trimmed mean at 2.7% and headline at 2.1%, and is expected to return to the 2–3% target range. Labour market conditions have eased slightly but remain tight, while global and domestic uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook. The Board reaffirmed its focus on price stability and full employment, noting policy remains flexible if conditions change.

AUDUSD rose 0.25% from the previous day.

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in July after a 0.3% gain in June, lifting annual CPI to 2.7%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% year-on-year. Shelter drove the increase, while food was flat and energy fell, led by a 2.2% drop in gasoline.

The EURUSD rose 0.51% on the day.

Thursday, August 14

04:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Australia’s labor market held steady in July 2025, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% and underemployment at 5.9%. Employment rose by about 25,000, lifting participation to 67.1%, while monthly hours worked reached 1,988 million. Full-time jobs increased, offsetting a decline in part-time roles, leaving the employment-to-population ratio unchanged at 64.2%.

AUDUSD decreased by 0.81% compared to the previous day.

9:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

UK GDP grew 0.4% in June 2025 after declines in April and May, with services, production, and construction all contributing. Over the three months to June, GDP rose 0.3%, driven by services (+0.4%) and construction (+1.2%), partly offset by a 0.3% fall in production. Compared with a year earlier, GDP was 1.4% higher.

GBPUSD increased 0.58% from the previous day.

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

U.S. producer prices rose sharply in July 2025, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) up 0.9% on the month and 3.3% year-on-year, the biggest annual gain since February. Services drove most of the increase, rising 1.1%, while goods prices climbed 0.7%, led by food and energy. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade) rose 0.6% in July and 2.8% over the year.

EURUSD fell by 0.5% compared to the previous day.

Friday, August 15

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.5% in July 2025 to $726.3 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year. Retail trade sales gained 0.7% on the month, with strong annual growth from nonstore retailers (+8.0%) and food services (+5.6%).

The EURUSD gained 0.48% from the previous day’s closing price.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

U.S. consumer sentiment fell 5% in August, the first drop in four months, driven by renewed inflation concerns. Buying conditions for durables hit a one-year low, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.9% and long-run expectations to 3.9%.

USDJPY decreased by 0.42% compared to the previous day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 0.33% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 0.29% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 1.83% weekly decrease
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD decreased by 0.83% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 0.71%
2. DJIA was up by 1.54%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 0.20%

Top Gainers

1. Bolt Projects Holdings, Inc. (BSLK) 288.94%
2. Atlantic International Corp. (ATLN) 164.40%
3. ReShape Lifesciences Inc. (RSLS) 148.89%

Top Losers

1. Cuprina Holdings (Cayman) Limited (CUPR) -85.51%
2. Fly-E Group, Inc. (FLYE) -85.34%
3. Cre8 Enterprise Limited (CRE) -83.41%

Company Earnings (August 11 – 15)

Wednesday, August 13: CSCO (Cisco Systems, Inc.)

Thursday, August 14: DE (Deere & Company)

Cisco beat Q4 expectations with strong revenue, margins, and EPS, boosted by record AI infrastructure orders exceeding $2B for FY25 and robust cloud and service provider demand. The company returned $12.4B to shareholders. However, public sector orders fell, services revenue was flat, security growth slowed, and FY26 guidance points to softer revenue growth of $59–$60B.

CSCO shares declined by 7.79% compared to the previous week.

For their last quarter, Deere & Company (DE) reported earnings of $4.75 per share, beating estimates of $4.62 per share.

DE shares fell by 4.23% compared to the previous week.

Conclusion

Overall, the week highlighted the delicate balance between easing inflation, resilient labor markets, and mixed consumer sentiment across major economies. Central banks remain cautious, inflation trends continue to diverge, and corporate earnings added both optimism and concern. With commodities under pressure but equities holding firm, markets enter the coming week focused on whether growth momentum can withstand lingering inflation risks and policy uncertainty.