Silver Climbs Forty Four Percent Since April

This week’s trading sessions are shaped by a series of high-impact economic releases, including Swiss CPI, U.S. ISM Services PMI, Canadian employment data, and the closely watched U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. These events are likely to drive volatility across currencies and commodities, with precious metals—particularly silver—remaining in focus after its sharp breakout to multi-year highs.

High Impact Economic Events

Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA – ISM Services PMI (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Chart Analysis

Since bottoming at $28.25 per ounce on April 7, silver has staged a robust rebound of more than 44%, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment and steady inflows of buying interest.

Technically, the setup remains constructive. The Momentum Oscillator is firmly above the 100 baseline, signaling sustained upside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above 50, reinforcing the positive momentum backdrop. Price action is also well-supported above the 20-period EMA, with both the 20- and 50-period EMAs trending higher, confirming the prevailing uptrend.

However, signs of caution are emerging. A bearish divergence is beginning to develop between price and the RSI, which has pushed into overbought territory. This suggests that near-term momentum could be fading, raising the risk of a consolidation phase or corrective pullback, even as the broader trend bias remains to the upside.

Key Resistance Levels

If buyers maintain control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:

41.565: The initial resistance level is estimated at 41.565, mirroring the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 39.514, to the low point, 36.195.

42.320: The second price target is seen at 42.320, reflecting the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

44.884: The third target is observed at 44.884, corresponding to 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 39.514, to the low point, 36.195.

48.203: An additional price objective is set at 48.203.

Key Support Levels

If sellers take control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:

39.514: The initial support level is seen at 39.514, representing the peak marked July 23.

38.534 The second support level is positioned at 38.534, aligning with the weekly support, S1, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

36.195: The third downside target is noted at 36.195, corresponding to the low point formed on July 31.

34.781: An additional downside target is determined at 34.781, mirroring the daily high marked on June 2.

Fundamentals

Silver prices have surged to their highest levels since 2011, briefly breaking above $40 an ounce and fueling momentum across the precious metals market. Analysts say the rally was catalyzed by silver after reports that it may be added to the U.S. Critical Materials list, sparking strong buying interest. The metal is now up about 40% on the year, supported by industrial demand from green energy, AI, and vehicle electrification, alongside its safe-haven appeal. While experts warn silver looks overbought in the near term and could see a pullback, the long-term outlook remains bullish, with some forecasts pointing to $44 an ounce before year-end.

Conclusion

Silver’s breakout above $40 has placed the metal firmly back in the spotlight, supported by strong technical momentum and robust fundamental drivers. While short-term overbought signals suggest the risk of consolidation or a corrective pullback, the broader trend bias remains constructive. With key economic data releases ahead likely to influence market sentiment, traders should watch for confirmation around the identified support and resistance levels, as silver’s long-term outlook continues to favor the upside.