Markets Rally as Jobs, Oil and Earnings Drive a Volatile Week (August 3 – 7, 2026, Recap) 

Overview 

Last week, financial markets were driven by a busy mix of economic data, labor-market reports, commodity moves, and major corporate earnings. US manufacturing showed renewed strength, while employment data from New Zealand, Canada, and the United States pointed to mixed labor-market conditions. Commodities were volatile, with oil prices falling sharply and precious metals gaining, while major U.S. stock indexes advanced. Investors also reacted to earnings from SpaceX, Caterpillar, Merck, McDonald’s, Pfizer, and BP, with company guidance, profitability, and investment plans shaping individual share-price moves. 

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review 

Monday, August 3 

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD) 

US manufacturing expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 55.6%, its highest level since May 2022. New orders, production, employment, backlogs, exports, and imports all strengthened, while customer inventories remained low, supporting future production. Production reached 58.5%, and employment returned to expansion for the first time in 33 months. Input conditions were mixed, with slower supplier deliveries and continued high prices, although price pressures eased slightly. Fifteen manufacturing industries reported growth, including transportation equipment, machinery, electronics, and food products, while chemical products were the only industry contracting. 

EUR/USD edged up 0.12% on the day. 

Wednesday, August 5 

01:45 am – New Zealand: Employment Change q/q (NZD) 

New Zealand’s labor market showed further signs of weakness in the June 2026 quarter. The unemployment rate rose to 5.6% from 5.4% in March, while the number of unemployed people increased to 171,000 from 164,000. Unemployment was higher for men at 5.7% and women at 5.5%, with particularly high rates among Pacific peoples and Māori. Youth unemployment also increased sharply over the year. Meanwhile, the employment rate remained broadly unchanged at 66.7%, although the number of employed people rose to 2.905 million. Underutilization increased to 13.8%, indicating greater spare capacity across New Zealand’s labor market. 

NZD/USD fell 0.1% on the day. 

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD) 

In the week ending July 24, 2026, US refineries increased activity and operated at 97.2% of capacity. Crude oil inventories fell sharply by 7.2 million barrels and remained below their five-year average. Gasoline and distillate production increased, while crude oil imports declined. Overall fuel demand was slightly weaker than a year earlier, although demand for distillate fuel and jet fuel increased. 

USOil ticked 0.03% lower on the day. 

Thursday, August 6 

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD) 

US initial jobless claims remained low in the week ending August 1, rising by just 1,000 to 199,000 from the previous week’s revised 198,000. The four-week moving average fell by 4,500 to 198,750, indicating continued stability in new unemployment filings. Meanwhile, insured unemployment increased by 24,000 to 1.801 million in the week ending July 25, while the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%. The four-week average of continuing claims declined by 5,000 to 1.791 million. Overall, the data suggest layoffs remain limited, although continuing unemployment claims remain relatively elevated. 

EUR/USD fell 0.25% on the day. 

Friday, August 7 

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD) 

Canada’s labor market strengthened in July, with employment rising by 75,000 and the unemployment rate falling slightly to 6.4%. Most of the job gains came from people aged 25 to 54, particularly women. Hiring increased in retail, finance, professional services, and construction, while public administration and agriculture lost jobs. Ontario recorded the largest employment increase, followed by British Columbia, Manitoba, and Nova Scotia. Wage growth also continued, with average hourly earnings rising 2.8% from a year earlier to $37.17. Overall, the figures point to improving employment conditions, although unemployment remains relatively elevated. 

USD/CAD declined by 0.56% on the day. 

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD) 

The US job market was largely unchanged in July. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, with about 6.9 million people unemployed. Job losses were concentrated in local government education, retail, and financial services, while health care continued to add jobs. Wage growth remained positive, with average hourly earnings up 3.2% from a year earlier. Previous job gains for May and June were also revised sharply lower by a combined 103,000. Overall, the report suggests the labor market is losing momentum, with weaker hiring but no major rise in unemployment. 

EUR/USD edged 0.01% higher on the day. 

Commodities 

1. Crude Oil  

1. Crude oil prices declined by 11.20% over the past week 

2. Brent Oil  

1. Brent was down 9.51% compared to the previous week 

3. Gold  

1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with 7.34% weekly gains 

4. Silver  

1. XAGUSD increased by 10.28% from last week 

Stock Market 

1. S&P 500 rose 3.62% 

2. DJIA was up 3.13% 

3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 5.26% 

Top Gainers 

1. Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM) 196.30% 

2. Reitar Logtech Holdings Limited (RITR) 193.81% 

3. Autonomix Medical, Inc. (AMIX) 191.86% 

Top Losers 

1. Recon Technology, Ltd. (RCON) -91.90% 

2. Next Technology Holding Inc. (NXTT) -87.73% 

3. PN Smart Energy Limited (PN) -81.41% 

Company Earnings (August 3 – 7) 

Tuesday, August 4: SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) 

Tuesday, August 4: CAT (Caterpillar Inc.) 

Tuesday, August 4: MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.) 

Tuesday, August 4: MCD (McDonald’s Corporation) 

Tuesday, August 4: PFE (Pfizer Inc.) 

Tuesday, August 4: BP (BP p.l.c.) 

Q2 revenue surged 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion and losses narrowed. Starlink posted record subscriber growth, and the AI business reached positive adjusted EBITDA with significant contracted revenue ahead. Starship development also showed progress. However, investment remains extremely heavy, with $18.4 billion in quarterly capital spending, largely focused on AI infrastructure, alongside continued spending on Starship and satellites. 

SPCX shares jumped 22.83% over the past week. 

Caterpillar posted record second-quarter results, with revenue rising 24% to $20.5 billion and adjusted profit per share up 73% to $8.17. Backlog reached a record $72 billion, supported by strong power-generation demand from data centers and AI. The company raised its 2026 outlook and is expanding capacity, but higher investment costs and about $2.2 billion in expected tariff expenses could pressure margins. 

CAT shares surged 3.36% during the past week. 

Merck raised and narrowed its 2026 revenue outlook to $66.3–$67.3 billion, supported by strong growth from newer products including WINREVAIR, WELIREG, and CAPVAXIVE. Its pipeline also advanced with positive late-stage trial results and FDA approval for LIPFENDRA. However, Q2 earnings were hurt by a large acquisition-related charge, while slower KEYTRUDA growth, inventory effects, and expected sales adjustments could pressure near-term margins. 

MRK shares fell 1.24% during the last week. 

McDonald’s reported modest second-quarter growth, with global comparable sales up 1.3% and systemwide sales rising 4% in constant currency. US sales growth was weaker, pressured by value-menu execution, fewer digital offers, and softer traffic. Management plans more promotions, simpler operations, and staff retraining. The new beverage platform is performing well, but inflation and consumer pressure pushed the company’s 50,000-restaurant target back to 2028. 

MCD shares rose 1.42% over the past week. 

Pfizer raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $60.5–$62.5 billion and maintained adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80–$3.00. Its non-COVID business remained strong, supported by growth from key medicines and acquired products. The company also increased its cost-saving target to about $9.7 billion through 2029. However, a failed Phase III lung-cancer trial and $4.3 billion in impairment charges added risk, while obesity programs remain a longer-term growth opportunity. 

PFE shares rallied 7.00% over the past week. 

BP’s underlying profit jumped 78% quarter over quarter to $5.7 billion, helped by stronger prices, trading, refining margins, and customer volumes. The company also cut net debt to $22.3 billion, raised its dividend by 4%, and outlined plans to simplify operations and reduce costs. However, upstream production and refining throughput declined, while safety concerns and limited conversion of cost savings into stronger cash flow remain key challenges. 

BP shares fell 7.94% over the past week. 

Conclusion 

Overall, last week presented a mixed but active market environment. Stronger US manufacturing and gains across major stock indexes supported risk sentiment. At the same time, weaker US payroll growth and softer labor-market signals highlighted concerns about the pace of economic momentum. Commodity markets showed sharp divergence, with oil prices falling significantly and precious metals posting strong gains. Corporate earnings also produced notable stock-specific moves as investors weighed growth prospects, profitability, guidance, and spending plans. Attention now turns to upcoming economic releases and company developments for further direction.