Inflation, Interest Rates, and Tensions Drive Global Market Action (March 16 – 20, 2026 Recap)

Overview

Global markets were driven last week by a heavy lineup of inflation data, central bank decisions, labour market updates, and major corporate earnings. Policymakers across the U.S., Canada, Europe, the UK, Japan, Switzerland, and Australia largely kept a cautious tone, as higher energy prices and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added fresh uncertainty to the outlook for inflation and growth. At the same time, investors also reacted to key earnings reports, commodity price swings, and notable moves across currencies, equities, and major stock indices.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Monday, March 16

14:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Canada’s CPI rose 1.8% year over year in February, down from 2.3% in January. The slowdown was mainly due to a base effect from February 2025, when the GST/HST break ended mid-month and temporarily pushed prices higher. Restaurant food was the biggest category affected, with smaller impacts from alcohol and toys. Inflation was also held down by lower prices for gasoline, natural gas, travel tours, and some housing-related costs. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.5%, or 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The USDCAD pair edged lower by 0.26% on the day.

Tuesday, March 17

05:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

On March 17, 2026, the RBA raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% as inflation risks increased. The Bank said stronger demand, capacity pressures, and higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict could keep inflation above target for longer.

The AUDUSD pair edged higher by 0.47% on the day.

Wednesday, March 18

14:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

U.S. producer prices rose 0.7% in February, marking the strongest monthly increase in recent months and pushing annual PPI inflation to 3.4%. The rise was driven by higher prices for both services and goods, while core producer prices excluding food, energy, and trade services increased 0.5% on the month and 3.5% from a year earlier.

EURUSD fell 0.76% on the day.

15:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (USD)

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing weaker domestic growth and rising global uncertainty. While Canadian inflation eased to 1.8% in February, higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict could lift inflation in the months ahead, leaving the Bank cautious on both growth and price risks.

USDCAD rose 0.29% on the day.

20:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The Fed kept its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, saying the U.S. economy continues to grow at a solid pace while inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee noted that uncertainty is still high, including risks tied to developments in the Middle East, and said future policy decisions will depend on incoming data and the balance of risks.

The USDJPY pair ticked up 0.53% on the day.

23:45 – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

In the September 2025 quarter, the economy grew by 1.1%, recovering from a 1.0% decline in the previous quarter. However, GDP was still 0.5% lower compared with a year earlier.

The NZDUSD pair fell 1.06% on the day.

Thursday, March 19

02:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Australia’s labor market showed mixed signals in February 2026. Employment rose by 48,900, but the unemployment rate also increased to 4.3% as the number of unemployed people climbed by 35,000. Full-time jobs fell, part-time jobs rose strongly, and the participation rate edged up to 66.9%.

AUDUSD rose 0.90% on the day.

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan kept its policy stance unchanged, maintaining the overnight call rate at around 0.75%. It said Japan’s economy is recovering moderately and inflation has recently eased to around 2%, but rising oil prices and Middle East tensions could add upward pressure to prices, meaning further rate hikes remain possible if the outlook holds.

The USDJPY pair dropped 1.33% on the day.

10:30 am – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 0% and signaled a greater willingness to intervene in FX markets to limit excessive franc strength. It said inflation is likely to rise in the near term due to higher energy prices, while growth prospects remain uncertain.

The USDCHF pair ticked lower by 0.63% on the day.

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

The Bank of England kept Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on March 18, 2026. The MPC said higher energy and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict will push inflation up in the near term, while also raising risks to growth and second-round inflation pressures.

GBPUSD rose by 1.31% on the day.

15:15 – Eurozone: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

The ECB left its key interest rates unchanged and said it remains committed to bringing inflation to its 2% target over the medium term. It warned that the war in the Middle East has made the outlook more uncertain, with higher energy prices raising inflation risks while also weighing on growth.

The EURUSD pair increased by 1.19% on the day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil

Crude oil prices decreased by 1.21% over the past week

2. Brent Oil

Brent was up 5.47% compared to the previous wee

3. Gold

The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 10.44% weekly decrease

4. Silver

XAGUSD decreased by 15.76% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 1.27%
2. DJIA was down 1.41%
3. NASDAQ 100 decreased by 1.31%

Top Gainers

1. Lunai Bioworks Inc. (LNAI) 154.07%
2. Artelo Biosciences, Inc. (ARTL) 111.97%
3. LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) 105.10%

Top Losers

1. Meiwu Technology Company Limited (WNW) -91.72%
2. Paranovus Entertainment Technology Ltd. (PAVS) -81.04%
3. Creative Media & Community Trust Corporation (CMCT) -80.15%

Company Earnings (March 16 – 20)

Tuesday, March 17: LULU (lululemon athletica inc.)

Wednesday, March 18: MU (Micron Technology, Inc.)

Thursday, March 19, BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited)

Lululemon’s latest quarterly sales were $3.6 billion, up 1% from a year earlier, while profit per share came in stronger than expected at $5.01. The company is now focusing on improving full-price sales in North America and strengthening its brand to support longer-term growth.

LULU shares gained 3.19% over the past week.

Micron reported a very strong quarter, with sales jumping to $23.9 billion from $8.1 billion a year earlier as demand for memory chips surged, especially in the AI market. Profit also rose sharply, and the company said it expects more record results next quarter, reflecting strong customer demand and tight industry supply.

MU shares edged down 0.76% over the past week.

Alibaba reported solid revenue growth, helped by stronger cloud and AI businesses, but profits fell sharply because the company is spending heavily on new technology and expanding its services. In simple terms, the business is still growing, especially in AI and cloud computing, but earnings were weaker because Alibaba is investing for longer-term growth.

BABA shares fell 9.47% over the past week.

Conclusion

In conclusion, last week’s market action reflected a delicate balance between easing inflation in some economies and renewed upside risks from higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions. While most central banks chose to keep policy steady, their overall message remained cautious, as uncertainty around growth, inflation, and global trade conditions continues to cloud the outlook. Looking ahead, markets are likely to stay highly sensitive to incoming economic data, energy price movements, and any further shifts in geopolitical risk.