Bitcoin Pushes Toward Highs Ahead of Key Jobs Data

High-impact economic data releases are set to shape market sentiment heading into the weekend, with Canada’s Employment Change and the US Non-Farm Employment Change scheduled for Friday at 15:30 (GMT+3). Both reports carry significant weight for CAD and USD pairs, and by extension, risk sentiment more broadly. At the same time, Bitcoin has been gaining momentum, with renewed safe-haven demand, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and surging ETF inflows driving a notable recovery from its early-September low.

High Impact Economic Events

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Chart Analysis

Since bottoming at 107,185.85 on September 1, BTCUSD has advanced nearly 12.5%, supported by renewed safe-haven demand tied to the US government shutdown, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts before year-end, and steady ETF inflows. The reversal was signaled first by a Hammer candlestick pattern, followed by a bullish “Golden Cross,” where the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the 50-period EMA, pointing to a strengthening shift in market sentiment. A failure swing pattern, with the trough at 108,541.95 holding above the previous low, further reinforced upward momentum and encouraged additional buying.

Momentum indicators corroborate this constructive technical backdrop. The Momentum Oscillator has broken above the 100 threshold, validating the strength of the ongoing uptrend. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains firmly above 50, indicating sustained buying pressure and underscoring that bullish control is intact. This alignment of macro drivers with technical confirmation suggests the market is positioned for further upside in the near term.

Key Resistance Levels

Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:

121,277.60: The initial resistance level is identified at 121,277.60, which mirrors the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

123,434.86: The second price target is seen at 123,434.86, reflecting the all-time high marked on August 14.

133,017.55: The third price objective is projected at 133,017.55, which corresponds to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 117,890.92 to 108,541.95.

142,366.52: An additional price target is established at 142,366.52.

Key Support Levels

Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:

117,890.92: The initial support level is identified at 117,890.92, corresponding to the peak formed on September 18.

113,871.05: The second support level is identified at 113,871.05, representing the daily high from September 24.

108,541.95: The third support level is identified at 108,541.95, corresponding to the swing low marked on July 26.

106,805.02: An additional downside target is noted at 106,805.02, reflecting the weekly support, S1, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

Fundamentals

Bitcoin surged to 120,000, marking its first return to this level since its record high in mid-August. The rally comes amid rising speculation that the US government shutdown could push investors toward safe-haven assets. The token has gained 10% since Friday and is now on a five-day winning streak, with $1.5 billion in ETF inflows this week alone.

Other cryptocurrencies, including Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin, also advanced, while crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and MARA Holdings saw sharp gains. Analysts pointed to Bitcoin’s seasonal strength in October—often referred to as “Uptober”—and a “coiled-spring” market setup as key drivers of the breakout.

The move highlights Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold,” even as physical gold recently retreated from record highs. With historical patterns showing October and Q4 as strong periods for crypto, traders see momentum favoring further upside.

Conclusion

With major labor market data from Canada and the US set to guide short-term risk sentiment, Bitcoin’s strong technical recovery and renewed macro tailwinds underscore its growing role as a hedge in times of uncertainty. The combination of seasonal strength, ETF inflows, and constructive chart signals suggests that momentum remains tilted to the upside. Traders will be watching whether incoming economic data reinforces the safe-haven narrative or triggers profit-taking, but for now, market conditions continue to favor the bulls.