The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for September 29 – October 3, 2025

The coming week is packed with key economic releases and central bank decisions that could drive market volatility. Traders will be watching PMI reports from China and the US for signs of momentum in manufacturing and services, while Australia’s cash rate decision will provide fresh insight into monetary policy direction. Switzerland’s inflation data and US jobless claims will add to the global inflation and labor market picture, with the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday standing out as the most closely watched indicator. Company earnings from major names like Jefferies, Nike, and Paychex will also be in focus.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

Tuesday 07:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Tuesday, September 30

04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a key economic indicator derived from monthly surveys of enterprise purchasing managers, covering various aspects such as purchasing, production, and distribution. It serves as an important tool for tracking macroeconomic trends and forecasting economic conditions. The Composite PMI Output Index measures changes in overall industry output, including both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. A PMI reading above 50% indicates economic expansion, while a reading below 50% signals contraction.

In August, China’s manufacturing sector contracted for a fifth straight month with the PMI at 49.4, highlighting sluggish domestic demand and uncertainty over trade with the US. While non-manufacturing activity improved slightly to 50.3, overall momentum remains fragile amid a property downturn, weak exports, and fiscal strains.

Analysts anticipate a modest rise to 49.6, but it is still in contractionary territory.

07:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Interest Rate Decision is one of the key instruments of the national monetary and credit policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

A higher interest rate leads to the appreciation of the Australian dollar.

At its August meeting, the Monetary Policy Board cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, citing easing inflation and softer labour market conditions. Trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.7% in Q2, within the target range, while headline inflation was 2.1%. The Board noted global and domestic uncertainties but expects household demand to recover gradually. With inflation moderating and unemployment edging higher, policymakers judged further easing appropriate, while remaining cautious and data-dependent.

Economists expect the RBA to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting.

Wednesday, October 1

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

In August, U.S. manufacturing contracted for a sixth straight month, with the Manufacturing PMI at 48.7. New orders returned to growth at 51.4, but production (47.8) and employment (43.8) fell further. Prices rose at a slower pace, while exports and imports both declined. Overall, the sector showed slightly less weakness than in July, though momentum remains fragile.

Economists expect the Manufacturing PMI to rise to 49.1 in the upcoming release.

Thursday, October 2

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland.

It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.

In August 2025, the consumer price index (CPI) slipped 0.1% from the previous month to 107.7 (Dec 2020 = 100), while annual inflation eased to 0.2%.

Analysts expect the CPI to fall by another 0.2%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

In the week ending September 20, US initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000, with the four-week average easing to 237,500. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.3%, while continuing claims slipped to 1.93 million.

Economists forecast initial claims of 229,000.

Friday, October 3

15:30 – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

In August 2025, US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000, showing little change since April, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Health care added jobs, offset by declines in the federal government and energy-related industries. Labor force participation remained at 62.3%, and long-term unemployment stayed elevated at 1.9 million.

Forecasts point to 51,000 additional jobs in the upcoming release.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In August, U.S. services activity expanded for the third straight month, with the Services PMI rising to 52%. Business activity (55%) and new orders (56%) strengthened, but employment contracted again at 46.5%, and order backlogs fell to their lowest since 2009. Prices stayed elevated at 69.2%, while supplier deliveries slowed slightly. Overall, momentum improved, though cost pressures and weak labor demand persisted.

Economists anticipate a reading of 52.0 in the upcoming release.

Company Earnings (September 29 -October 3)

Monday, September 29: JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.)

Tuesday, September 30: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

Tuesday, September 30: PAYX (Paychex, Inc.)

Conclusion

With a packed calendar of data releases and central bank decisions, markets are likely to see heightened volatility in the days ahead. PMI figures from China and the US will offer insight into global growth momentum, while Australia’s rate decision and Switzerland’s CPI will shed light on monetary policy and inflation dynamics. In the US, weekly jobless claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be closely watched for signals on labor market health, alongside the ISM Services PMI. Coupled with corporate earnings updates from major companies, these events will provide key direction for traders and investors.