The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for October 27 – 31, 2025

The final week of October will feature key economic data and major central bank decisions that could shape global markets. Inflation, growth, and policy updates from the US, Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia, and China will be in focus, alongside earnings from major US companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. These events are expected to drive volatility across equities, currencies, and commodities.

High Impact Economic Events

Wednesday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: CPI q/q (AUD)

Wednesday 15:45 (GMT+2) – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

Wednesday 20:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

Thursday Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

Thursday Tentative – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

Thursday 15:15 (GMT+2) – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

Friday 03:30 am (GMT+2) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

Friday 14:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Friday Tentative – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Wednesday, October 29

02:30 am – Australia: CPI q/q (AUD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.

In the June 2025 quarter, Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.7%, bringing annual inflation to 2.1%—the lowest since March 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Underlying (trimmed mean) inflation eased to 2.7% from 2.9% in the previous quarter. The main contributors to the quarterly rise were housing (+1.2%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+1.0%), and health (+1.5%), partly offset by a 0.7% fall in transport costs due to lower fuel prices. Annually, inflation slowed as automotive fuel prices dropped 10%, while food inflation stayed elevated at 3.0%, driven by higher prices for fruit, vegetables, and eggs.

Analysts anticipate the next quarterly CPI will rise by around 1.1 percent.

15:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada uses the target for the overnight rate, also known as the policy interest rate, to control inflation. This rate influences other interest rates in the economy, affecting loans, mortgages, and savings. The Bank adjusts this rate to either stimulate economic growth by lowering it (encouraging spending) or to curb inflation by raising it (encouraging savings). The target rate is part of the Bank’s broader strategy to maintain economic stability.

In September 2025, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, citing weaker economic growth and easing inflation pressures. Canada’s GDP fell 1.5% in the second quarter as exports dropped sharply due to US tariffs and trade uncertainty. Employment and wage growth have slowed, while inflation held near 2%. The Bank said the rate cut aims to support growth and maintain price stability amid global trade disruptions and a softening domestic economy.

Economists expect an additional 25-basis-point rate cut.

20:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy by changing its target range for the federal funds rate, which impacts overnight borrowing rates for banks. Lowering the target, or “easing,” reduces interest rates to stimulate the economy during slow growth, low inflation, or high unemployment. Raising the target, or “tightening,” increases rates to cool an overheating economy, high inflation, or low unemployment. These rate changes affect broader financial conditions, influencing household and business spending, and ultimately impacting economic activity, employment, unemployment, and inflation.

In September, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4–4.25%, citing slower economic growth and increased risks to employment. Job gains have weakened, and unemployment has edged up, while inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% target, noting it will adjust policy as needed based on future data and economic conditions.

Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut the funds rate by another 25 basis points.

Thursday, October 30

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy aims to achieve price stability, which is crucial for supporting economic activity. Price stability helps individuals and firms make informed decisions about consumption and investment, ensuring efficient resource allocation. To this end, the Bank set a 2% inflation target (CPI) in 2013 and remains committed to reaching this goal as soon as possible.

In September 2025, the Bank of Japan kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, noting that Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately but faces challenges from global trade uncertainty. Inflation remains below the 2% target, though underlying price pressures are gradually rising. Policymakers agreed to maintain accommodative financial conditions, while some members suggested a cautious approach toward future rate hikes.

Economists anticipate that the BoJ will keep the policy rate unchanged.

Tentative – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

The Gross Domestic Productrepresents the valuation of all goods and services produced in the United States in the current quarter compared to the previous one. GDP is published in three stages—Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release comes first and typically has the strongest market impact.

In the second quarter of 2025, US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.0%, rebounding from a 0.5% decline in the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth was driven by lower imports and stronger consumer spending, partly offset by weaker investment and exports. Inflation pressures eased, with the PCE price index rising 2.1% compared with 3.7% in the previous quarter.

Economists anticipate a growth reading of 3.0%

15:15 – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

The ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced after the European Central Bank meetings, during which the eurozone’s monetary policy is discussed. The interest rate decisions are made depending on the inflationary outlook and economic growth.

Cut in deposit rates may have a negative effect on EUR quotes.

On 11 September 2025, the European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%.

Economists expect the ECB to maintain the main refinancing rate at its current level.

Friday, October 31

03:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a key economic indicator derived from monthly surveys of enterprise purchasing managers, covering various aspects such as purchasing, production, and distribution. It serves as an important tool for tracking macroeconomic trends and forecasting economic conditions. The Composite PMI Output Index measures changes in overall industry output, including both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. A PMI reading above 50% indicates economic expansion, while a reading below 50% signals contraction.

In September 2024, China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 from 49.7 in August, signaling easing downward pressure on the sector, though it remained just below the expansion threshold. Output and new orders strengthened, particularly among large enterprises, while export demand and employment stayed weak. Business confidence was steady, indicating cautious optimism amid external headwinds.

Analysts forecast a reading of 49.7.

14:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

In July, Canada’s real GDP grew 0.2% after a 0.1% decline in June, marking the first increase in four months. Growth was led by a 0.6% rebound in goods-producing industries, while services edged up 0.1%, supported by wholesale trade and real estate but weighed down by weaker retail activity. Overall, 11 of 20 sectors expanded.

Economists expect GDP growth to remain flat.

Tentative – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

In August, U.S. personal income rose 0.4%, or $95.7 billion, while disposable personal income increased by $86.1 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal spending grew 0.6%, outpacing income gains, and the personal saving rate fell to 4.6%, with total savings at $1.06 trillion. The PCE price index rose 0.3% from July and 2.7% from a year earlier, while core PCE (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% month over month and 2.9% year over year.

Analysts expect core PCE to increase by 0.2% in the next release.

Company Earnings (October 27 – 31)

Tuesday, October 28: V (Visa Inc.)

Tuesday, October 28: PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.)

Tuesday, October 28: EA (Electronic Arts Inc.)

Wednesday, October 29: MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)

Wednesday, October 29: GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.)

Wednesday, October 29: META (Meta Platforms, Inc.)

Wednesday, October 29: CAT (Caterpillar Inc.)

Wednesday, October 29: EBAY (eBay Inc.)

Thursday, October 30: AAPL (Apple Inc.)

Thursday, October 30: AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)

Thursday, October 30: MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.)

Friday, October 31: XOM (Exxon Mobil Corporation)

Friday, October 31: CVX (Chevron Corporation)

Conclusion

The final week of October is set to be eventful, with key economic indicators and central bank decisions likely to influence global market sentiment. From inflation data and GDP figures to interest rate announcements, these releases will offer vital clues about the direction of monetary policy across major economies. At the same time, corporate earnings from tech and energy giants such as Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Exxon Mobil will provide insight into business performance and sector trends. Together, these developments could drive volatility across currencies, equities, and commodities as investors react to shifting economic and financial signals.