The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for November 17 – 21, 2025

This week features several high-impact economic releases from Canada, the UK, Germany, and the United States, along with major earnings reports from Baidu, NVIDIA, and Walmart. These events are likely to drive market volatility across currencies, equities, and commodities as traders react to fresh inflation data, employment figures, retail sales, and PMI updates.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Monday, November 17

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

In September, inflation picked up slightly as consumer prices rose 2.4 percent compared with a year earlier, up from 1.9 percent in August. This increase was mainly due to gasoline prices not falling as sharply as they did last year, which made the overall inflation rate appear higher. Without gasoline, prices rose 2.6 percent, compared with 2.4 percent in August. Travel tour prices also declined more slowly, and grocery prices rose more quickly, increasing four percent year over year. Month to month, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent, or 0.4 percent after adjusting for seasonal patterns.

Analysts expect the next CPI report to show a 0.2 percent increase.

Wednesday, November 19

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.

In September 2025, UK inflation remained steady. CPIH, which includes housing costs, rose 4.1 percent over the past year, unchanged from August. The standard CPI measure also held flat at 3.8 percent year over year. Transport put upward pressure on inflation, while recreation, culture, and food and non-alcoholic drinks helped offset it. Core CPIH eased slightly from 4.0 to 3.9 percent, and core CPI dipped from 3.6 to 3.5 percent. Goods inflation edged up from 2.8 to 2.9 percent, while services inflation stayed unchanged.

Economists expect a 3.6% CPI reading.

Thursday, November 20

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

US job growth was mostly flat in August, with employers adding 22,000 jobs, a pace that has changed little since April. The unemployment rate also held steady at 4.3 percent. Health care added jobs, but those gains were partly offset by losses in the federal government and in mining, oil, and gas extraction.

This report was the last one released before the US government shutdown.

Friday, November 21

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Retail Salesshow the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous month. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.

The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting, and developing UK financial and economic policy. Retail sales growth can positively affect British pound quotes.

Retail sales picked up in the third quarter of 2025, rising 0.9 percent compared with the previous quarter. Warm weather in July and August boosted clothing sales, and online retailers continued to grow steadily. In September alone, retail sales rose 0.5 percent, following a slightly stronger August. Stores selling computers and telecom products saw strong gains, and online jewellers reported solid demand for gold.

Economists expect the next retail sales reading to come in at 0.1 percent.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.

Germany’s manufacturing sector showed little energy in October 2025. The PMI was 49.6, almost unchanged from September and still below the level that signals growth. Output and new orders rose slightly, but business confidence fell to its lowest point this year. Factories cut staff and reduced purchasing as they ran down inventories, while delivery times lengthened again. Although input costs continued to decline, manufacturers raised selling prices for the first time in six months. Overall, the sector remained weak with only modest signs of improvement.

Economists expect the next PMI reading to edge up slightly to 49.8.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

Germany’s services sector strengthened sharply in October, with the Services PMI jumping to 54.6 — its highest in more than two years. New business grew, employment picked up for the first time in three months, and firms raised prices as demand and costs increased. Overall, the sector showed its strongest momentum since 2023.

Economists expect the next Services PMI reading to come in around 54.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

UK manufacturing showed a slight improvement in October, with the PMI rising to 49.7—its highest in a year but still just below the growth threshold. Output increased for the first time in 12 months, helped partly by production restarting at Jaguar Land Rover, while new orders at home and abroad continued to fall, though at a slower pace. Overall, the sector remained weak despite a small pickup in activity.

Economists expect the next PMI reading to ease slightly to around 49.3.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

UK services activity strengthened in October, with the Services PMI rising to 52.3 as business activity and new orders grew at a faster pace. Employment nearly stabilized, while input cost inflation eased to an 11-month low. Overall, the sector showed improving momentum despite lingering uncertainty.

Economists expect the next Services PMI reading to ease slightly to around 52.

16:45 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing continued to grow in October, with the PMI rising to 52.5 as output and new orders strengthened. Demand was driven mainly by the domestic market, while exports fell due to tariffs. Input costs rose sharply again, and firms built up inventories at a record pace, keeping overall conditions positive but raising concerns about future demand.

16:45 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

US services activity grew solidly in October, with the PMI rising to 54.8 as new business increased. However, higher costs, modest hiring, and weaker confidence due to economic and political uncertainty tempered the outlook, while firms faced pressure to limit price increases despite rising expenses.

Company Earnings (November 17 – 21)

Tuesday, November 18: BIDU (Baidu, Inc.)

Wednesday, November 19: NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation)

Thursday, November 20: WMT (Walmart Inc.)

Conclusion

Overall, this week’s data and earnings releases are likely to create meaningful market moves, with traders watching inflation, jobs, retail activity, and PMI figures for clues on the strength of major economies. Staying alert to volatility will be key as the numbers unfold, especially with shifting expectations around central bank policy, consumer demand, and global growth momentum.