The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for March 2 – 6, 2026

The upcoming week features several high-impact economic releases that could drive volatility across USD and AUD pairs. Key highlights include US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Australia’s quarterly GDP, weekly Unemployment Claims, Non-Farm Payrolls, and Retail Sales. With labor market data and growth indicators in focus, traders should prepare for potential shifts in dollar momentum and broader market sentiment.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Wednesday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)

Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales (USD)

Monday, March 2

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

In January, the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6%, marking the first expansion in 12 months after a prolonged contraction. New orders, production, exports, and backlogs strengthened, while supplier deliveries slowed and prices increased. Employment and inventories remained in contraction, though improved, and customers’ inventories dropped further, supporting potential future output.

Economists expect a growth reading of 51.7 in the next release.

Wednesday, March 4

02:30 am – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)

The total market value of all goods and services produced within Australia during a specific time period is known as the GDP.

Australia’s economy expanded 0.4% in the last quarter of 2025, lifting annual growth to 2.1%. Domestic final demand drove the increase, supported by stronger private investment and household consumption. However, inventories and net trade weighed on growth, as stock drawdowns supported exports, and imports rose faster than exports.

Economists expect the economy to expand by 0.7% in the next release.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

The ISM Services PMI held steady at 53.8% in January, marking 19 consecutive months of expansion. Business activity strengthened, while new orders and employment remained in growth territory, though slightly softer. Supplier deliveries slowed further, and prices rose to 66.6%, staying elevated. Inventories and backlogs contracted, while tariff concerns and pricing pressures continued to shape business sentiment.

Economists expect the PMI to register 53.5 in the next release.

Thursday, March 5

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

In the week ending February 21, initial jobless claims increased by 4,000 to 212,000, with the prior week revised higher. The four-week moving average edged up to 220,250. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%. Continuing claims declined by 31,000 to 1.83 million, although their four-week average rose slightly, pointing to broadly stable labor market conditions.

Economists anticipate 215,000 new claims.

Friday, March 6

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report reveals the number of new jobs created during the given month in all non-agricultural sectors of the US.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

In January, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job gains were concentrated in health care, social assistance, and construction, whereas federal government and financial activities recorded declines. The figures are derived from both household and establishment surveys.

Analysts expect nonfarm payroll to rise by 58,000.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

US retail and food services sales reached $735 billion in December 2025, staying nearly the same as November but rising 2.4% compared to a year earlier. For all of 2025, sales increased 3.7% from 2024. Online retailers and restaurants saw solid yearly gains, helping offset flat monthly growth in overall retail spending.

Markets expect retail sales to decline by 0.3% in the next release.

Company Earnings (March 2 – 6)

Wednesday, March 4: AVGO (Broadcom Inc.)

Thursday, March 5: COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation)

Thursday, March 5: BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited)

Conclusion

Overall, the week is heavily weighted toward US data, with labor market figures and key PMI readings likely to set the tone for the dollar. Australia’s GDP will also be closely watched for signals on domestic momentum. With expectations mixed across releases, any meaningful deviation from forecasts could trigger sharp moves across FX, equities, and yields. Traders should remain alert to volatility, particularly toward the end of the week.