The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for July 28 – August 1, 2025

This week features a packed calendar of high-impact economic data releases and central bank decisions across major economies. Key inflation figures from Australia and the US, GDP updates from Canada and the US, and rate decisions from the Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, and Bank of Japan are set to shape market expectations. In addition, investors will closely watch US labor market data, including nonfarm payrolls and jobless claims, alongside China’s manufacturing PMI. Major earnings reports from tech and energy giants will also drive market sentiment.

High Impact Economic Events

Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

Wednesday 16:45 (GMT+3) – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

Wednesday 21:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

Thursday04:30 am (GMT+3) –China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

Thursday Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Wednesday, July 30

04:30 am – Australia: CPI q/q (AUD)

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.

In May, inflation in Australia rose 2.1 percent over the year, easing from 2.4 percent in April. The biggest contributors were food and non-alcoholic beverages, up 2.9 percent, housing costs rising 2.0 percent, and alcohol and tobacco increasing by 5.9 percent. Rents rose 4.5 percent, while electricity prices fell 5.9 percent due to government rebates. Automotive fuel prices dropped 10.0 percent. The trimmed mean, which reflects underlying inflation, fell to 2.4 percent from 2.8 percent in the previous month.

Analysts anticipate that the quarterly CPI will edge slightly lower to 0.8%

15:30 – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

The Gross Domestic Productrepresents the valuation of all goods and services produced in the United States in the current quarter compared to the previous one.

GDP growth may have a positive effect on the US dollar quotes.

US real GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, following a 2.4 percent rise in the previous quarter. The drop was driven by higher imports and lower government spending, partly offset by gains in investment, consumer spending, and exports. Inflation pressures increased, with the PCE price index rising 3.6 percent.

Economists project a growth rate of 2.45%.

16:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada uses the target for the overnight rate, also known as the policy interest rate, to control inflation. This rate influences other interest rates in the economy, affecting loans, mortgages, and savings. The Bank adjusts this rate to either stimulate economic growth by lowering it (encouraging spending) or to curb inflation by raising it (encouraging saving). The target rate is part of the Bank’s broader strategy to maintain economic stability.

On June 4, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, citing persistent uncertainty over US tariffs and mixed economic data. Inflation eased to 1.7% in April due to tax changes, but core inflation edged higher. The Bank remains cautious as it monitors trade impacts and inflation trends.

Analysts do not expect any changes.

21:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy by changing its target range for the federal funds rate, which impacts overnight borrowing rates for banks. Lowering the target, or “easing,” reduces interest rates to stimulate the economy during slow growth, low inflation, or high unemployment. Raising the target, or “tightening,” increases rates to cool an overheating economy, high inflation, or low unemployment. These rate changes affect broader financial conditions, influencing household and business spending, and ultimately impacting economic activity, employment, unemployment, and inflation.

In June, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, citing solid economic growth and a strong labor market, though inflation remained somewhat elevated. While uncertainty had diminished, the Fed remained cautious and data-dependent in guiding future policy decisions.

Analysts do not anticipate any cuts to interest rates.

Thursday, July 31

04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly indicator of economic activity in China’s manufacturing sector, published by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It surveys 3,200 enterprises across various industries and regions, measuring key sub-indicators like output, new orders, and employment. A PMI reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

In June, China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, signaling easing downward pressure on the sector. Large enterprises showed modest expansion, while medium and small firms remained in contraction. Output and new orders improved slightly, but export demand and employment remained weak.

Analysts anticipate a rate of 49.7.

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy aims to achieve price stability, which is crucial for supporting economic activity. Price stability helps individuals and firms make informed decisions about consumption and investment, ensuring efficient resource allocation. To this end, the Bank set a 2% inflation target (CPI) in 2013 and remains committed to reaching this goal as soon as possible.

In June, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.5% and announced a gradual reduction in government bond purchases through early 2027. While Japan’s economy continued to recover moderately, inflation remained elevated around 3.5%. The Bank cited rising inflation expectations and global policy uncertainty as key risks.

Economists anticipate that there will be no changes to Japan’s policy interest rate.

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Gross Domestic Product is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced, minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.

In April, Canada’s real GDP slipped 0.1% after a 0.2% rise in March. Goods-producing industries fell 0.6%, mainly due to a drop in manufacturing, while services edged up 0.1%, with gains in public administration and finance offset by declines in wholesale trade.

Economists expect that GDP will decrease slightly by 0.1%.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

In May 2025, US personal income fell 0.4%, while consumer spending dipped 0.1%. People had less disposable income, mainly due to lower government benefits and farm income. Spending on goods declined, though spending on services rose. Inflation remained modest, with prices up 2.3% from a year earlier.

Analysts project a reading of 0.3%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Initial Jobless Claims show the number of people filing to receive unemployment insurance benefits for the first time over the past week.

The indicator is used to assess the state of the labor market. Since the weekly flow of data causes high volatility, the four-week average values are used most often for interpretation.

The indicator growth can have a negative effect on US dollar quotes.

In the week ending July 19, US jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000. The 4-week average also declined to 224,500. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3%, with continuing claims rising slightly to 1.96 million.

Economists anticipate that 222,000 people will apply for unemployment insurance.

Friday, August 1

15:30 – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

In June 2025, the US economy added 147,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Job gains were led by state government and health care, but federal employment declined. Average hourly wages rose 0.2%, and the labor market showed little overall change.

In July 2025, economists expect 107,000 new jobs to be added.

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

In June, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month, with the PMI rising slightly to 49. While production returned to growth, new orders and employment continued to decline. Input costs remained high, and hiring stayed cautious despite stronger output.

Analysts project a contractionary reading of 49.5%

Company Earnings (July 28 -August 1)

Tuesday, July 29: EA (Electronic Arts Inc.)

Tuesday, July 29: MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.)

Tuesday, July 29: PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.)

Wednesday, July 30: SBUX (Starbucks Corporation)

Wednesday, July 30: V (Visa Inc.)

Wednesday, July 30: EBAY (eBay Inc.)

Wednesday, July 30: F (Ford Motor Company)

Wednesday, July 30: META (Meta Platforms, Inc.)

Wednesday, July 30: MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)

Thursday, July 31: AAPL (Apple Inc.)

Thursday, July 31: AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)

Friday, August 1: CVX (Chevron Corporation)

Friday, August 1: XOM (Exxon Mobil Corporation)

Conclusion

With a full slate of major economic releases and central bank decisions, this week will be pivotal for market sentiment. Investors will look for signals on growth, inflation, and monetary policy direction as they digest data from across the globe and key corporate earnings.