The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for January 5 – 9, 2026

This week features several high-impact economic events that could influence global financial markets and major currencies. Key data releases include inflation figures, business activity surveys, labor market reports, and consumer confidence indicators from the United States, Australia, Switzerland, and Canada. These updates will provide fresh insight into economic momentum, inflation pressures, and employment trends, helping investors assess the outlook for growth and central bank policy decisions in the days ahead.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Wednesday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: CPI m/m (AUD)

Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

Monday, January 5

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators such as New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and the broader economy.

In November, US manufacturing weakened further, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.2, its lowest level in four months. This shows the sector has been shrinking for nine months in a row, as new orders, hiring, and supplier activity all slowed. While factory output improved slightly, companies continued to cut back on jobs, and price pressures increased. Overall, more than half of the manufacturing sector remained in contraction, highlighting ongoing weakness in the industry.

Economists expect the next report to rise slightly to 48.3%.

Wednesday, January 7

02:30 am – Australia: CPI m/m (AUD)

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to October 2025, accelerating from a 3.6% increase in the year to September. The largest contributors to annual inflation were housing, which climbed 5.9%, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages and recreation and culture, both rising 3.2%. On a monthly basis, CPI was unchanged in original terms in October, while seasonally adjusted inflation increased by 0.3%. Meanwhile, trimmed mean inflation edged higher to 3.3% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in September, pointing to continued underlying price pressures.

Economists expect monthly CPI inflation to edge up to 0.1%

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

In November, activity in the US services sector improved slightly, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 52.6, its highest level in nine months. Business activity and new orders continued to expand, and growing order backlogs pointed to early signs of recovery. However, companies continued to face challenges from tariffs and the government shutdown, which affected demand and costs. Hiring remained weak, supplier delays increased, and price pressures eased to their lowest level in seven months.

Economists expect the next report to tick lower to 52.3.

Thursday, January 8

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland.

It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.

Inflation in Switzerland was flat in November 2025, with consumer prices unchanged from a year earlier. This was slightly lower than in October. On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.2%, bringing total inflation for 2025 to just 0.1%.

Economists expect no change in the next report.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

In late December, fewer people applied for unemployment benefits, with new jobless claims falling to 199,000. While the four-week average edged slightly higher, overall claims remained low, pointing to a stable labor market. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%, and the number of people continuing to receive benefits declined, suggesting fewer workers were staying unemployed.

Economists forecast around 216,000 new jobless claims in the next report.

Friday, January 9

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Change in the number of employed individuals in the previous month. In general, when the actual figure is greater than the forecast, it is positive for the currency.

In November, employment increased modestly, with most of the job gains coming from part-time work. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5%, and more people were working overall, especially young workers aged 15 to 24. Job growth was strongest in health care, hospitality, and natural resources, while retail and wholesale trade saw job losses. Employment rose mainly in Alberta, with smaller gains in a few other provinces. Meanwhile, wages continued to rise, with average hourly pay up 3.6% from a year earlier.

Economists expect employment to decline by 5,400.

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report reveals the number of new jobs created during the given month in all non-agricultural sectors of the US.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

In November, US job growth was modest, with payroll employment increasing by 64,000 and showing little overall change in recent months. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.6%. Job gains were mainly seen in health care and construction, while federal government employment continued to decline, pointing to limited momentum in the labor market.

Economists forecast 57,000 new nonfarm jobs in the next report.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly measure of how consumers perceive current and future economic conditions. Based on a survey of approximately 500 households, it provides insight into consumer confidence and spending behavior. The index is released in two stages: a preliminary estimate and a final revised figure, with the preliminary version typically having a stronger market impact. A higher-than-expected reading generally supports a stronger US dollar, while a weaker reading may signal economic concerns and pressure the dollar lower.

Consumer confidence improved slightly in December, but the change was very small and barely noticeable. Lower-income households felt a bit more positive, while higher-income consumers saw little change. People became less confident about buying big-ticket items, although expectations for personal finances and business conditions improved. Even so, most consumers still expect unemployment to rise over the next year, and overall confidence remains much lower than it was a year ago, as concerns about everyday living costs continue to weigh on sentiment.

Economists expect the consumer sentiment index to improve slightly to 53.5.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

University of Michigan (UoM) Inflation Expectations represent the anticipated percentage change in consumer prices over the coming 12 months, as reported by surveyed consumers. The data is released in two stages—Preliminary and Final (Revised)—with the Preliminary report typically having greater market influence due to its earlier release.

A result above market expectations may support a stronger US dollar (bullish), while a lower-than-expected figure can signal weakness in the dollar (bearish).

Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased for the fourth consecutive month to 4.2%. This is the lowest reading in 11 months, but it is still above the 3.3% seen in January. Long-run inflation expectations eased from 3.4% last month to 3.2% in December, matching the January 2025 reading. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8 and 3.2% last year and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020.

Company Earnings (January 5 – 9)

Wednesday, January 7: STZ (Constellation Brands, Inc.)

Wednesday, January 7: JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.)

Thursday, January 8: AYI (Acuity Inc.)

Conclusion

Overall, the upcoming week is packed with important economic releases that will help shape market expectations for growth, inflation, and interest rates. With manufacturing and services activity, inflation data, and key labor market reports all in focus, investors are likely to see increased volatility, particularly in the US dollar, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Swiss franc. How closely the data aligns with forecasts will be critical in setting the tone for markets as the year gets underway.