The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for February 2 – 6, 2026 

This week is packed with major economic releases and central bank decisions that could drive volatility across currencies and global markets. Key highlights include US manufacturing and services activity data, interest rate decisions from Australia, the UK, and the eurozone, as well as critical labor market reports from the US and Canada. Investor focus will also turn to US consumer confidence indicators and major corporate earnings, which may provide further insight into economic momentum and market direction.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Tuesday 05:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Thursday 14:00 (GMT+2) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

Thursday 15:15 (GMT+2) – Eurozone: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

Monday, February 2

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

In December, US manufacturing weakened again for the 10th straight month. Factory activity slipped slightly from November, with lower production, fewer new orders, and continued job reductions. While a few demand indicators showed small improvements, most of the manufacturing sector remains under pressure, with only one major industry showing growth.

Economists expect a slight increase to 48.5 in the next report.

Tuesday, February 3

Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Interest Rate Decision is one of the key instruments of the national monetary and credit policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

A higher interest rate leads to the appreciation of the Australian dollar.

In December, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 3.60%. Inflation has eased from its 2022 peak but has recently picked up, creating uncertainty. Economic growth is improving, supported by stronger consumer spending, business investment, and housing activity. The labour market remains tight, wages are still rising, and policymakers are closely monitoring inflation risks.

Economists anticipate the rate will increase to 3.85%.

Wednesday, February 4

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In December, the US services sector continued to grow, ending the year on a strong note. Business activity and new orders increased, hiring expanded for the first time in seven months, and overall conditions improved compared with November. While price pressures eased slightly, most service industries remained in expansion, showing steady momentum going into the new year.

Economists forecast a reading of 53.6.

Thursday, February 5

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target while supporting sustainable economic growth and employment. It adopts a forward-looking, medium-term strategy to ensure inflation remains stable and sustainable.

In December, the central bank narrowly voted to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75%. Inflation has eased to 3.2% and is expected to fall closer to the 2% target. With economic growth slowing and the job market cooling, policymakers signaled that interest rates are likely to keep falling gradually, though future cuts will depend on how inflation develops.

Economists expect the rate to remain unchanged.

15:15 – Eurozone: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

The ECB Interest Rate Decisionis announced after the European Central Bank meetings, during which the eurozone’s monetary policy is discussed. The interest rate decisions are made depending on the inflationary outlook and economic growth.

Cut in deposit rates may have a negative effect on EUR quotes.

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, saying inflation is expected to settle around its 2% target in the coming years. Inflation is easing gradually, while economic growth is improving slightly, supported by stronger domestic demand. Policymakers said future rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

Economists expect the ECB to keep the rate unchanged at 2.15%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

In the week ending January 24, new US unemployment claims fell slightly to 209,000, showing the job market remains stable. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits also declined to its lowest level since September 2024, suggesting that layoffs remain limited and employment conditions are still relatively strong.

Economists anticipate 213,000 new claims.

Friday, February 6

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Change in the number of employed individuals in the previous month. In general, when the actual figure is greater than the forecast, it is positive for the currency.

In December, Canada’s employment was mostly unchanged, with a small gain of 8,200 jobs, beating expectations for a decline. Full-time jobs increased while part-time work fell. Job growth was led by health care and personal services, while professional services saw losses. Employment rose in Quebec but declined in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Analysts expect 7,200 new jobs.

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

In December, US job growth was modest, with payrolls rising by 50,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. Hiring continued in restaurants, health care, and social services, while retail jobs declined.

Economists expect around 67,000 new jobs to be added.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly measure of how consumers perceive current and future economic conditions. Based on a survey of approximately 500 households, it provides insight into consumer confidence and spending behavior. The index is released in two stages: a preliminary estimate and a final revised figure, with the preliminary version typically having a stronger market impact. A higher-than-expected reading generally supports a stronger US dollar, while a weaker reading may signal economic concerns and pressure the dollar lower.

Consumer confidence improved slightly last month, rising by about 3.5 points across all groups of consumers. Despite the small gain, overall sentiment remains more than 20% lower than a year ago, as high prices and concerns about job security continue to weigh on households. Most consumers are not factoring global events into their outlook, except for worries related to tariff policies.

Analysts expect the index to come in near 55.4.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

University of Michigan (UoM) Inflation Expectations represent the anticipated percentage change in consumer prices over the coming 12 months, as reported by surveyed consumers. The data is released in two stages—Preliminary and Final (Revised)—with the Preliminary report typically having greater market influence due to its earlier release.

A result above market expectations may support a stronger US dollar (bullish), while a lower-than-expected figure can signal weakness in the dollar (bearish).

Inflation expectations eased slightly, with people expecting prices to rise 4.0% over the year — the lowest level since early 2025. However, expectations remain higher than in recent years. Long-term inflation expectations edged up to 3.3%, still above pre-pandemic levels, and uncertainty about future inflation remains elevated compared with normal historical levels.

Company Earnings (February 2– 6)

Monday, February 2: DIS (The Walt Disney Company)

Tuesday, February 3: MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.)

Tuesday, February 3: PFE (Pfizer Inc.)

Wednesday, February 4: GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.)

Thursday, February 5: AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)

Conclusion

Overall, this week’s heavy calendar of economic data and central bank decisions is likely to keep markets volatile. Interest rate signals, labor market updates, and confidence indicators will be closely watched for clues on growth and inflation trends, while major earnings releases could add to market moves. Traders and investors should stay alert, as outcomes that differ from expectations may trigger sharp reactions across currencies and risk assets.