EUR/USD Daily Forecast: Bearish ABC Correction Targets 1.1120 Zone

EUR/USD Daily Chart showing Elliott Wave structure and projected ABC correction.

Market Overview

EUR/USD remains under pressure after completing a strong impulsive advance from February through January highs. The pair has since entered a corrective phase, with price action suggesting that a larger ABC correction may be developing.

The recent decline successfully reached the Fibonacci 261.8 extension zone, where buyers temporarily regained control. However, the recovery appears corrective rather than impulsive, indicating that sellers may still dominate the broader structure.

Technical Structure

The daily chart suggests that wave (a) has already completed near the Fibonacci 261.8 extension support zone.

A corrective rebound is currently unfolding and could form wave (b), targeting the major resistance area between:

1.18655 – 1.19191

This resistance zone coincides with:

• Previous Head and Shoulders neckline area.
• Historical supply zone.
• Strong resistance created by previous swing highs.
• Elliott Wave corrective resistance.

As long as price remains below this resistance zone, the broader corrective outlook remains valid.

Bearish ABC Scenario

The preferred scenario is for EUR/USD to complete wave (b) before initiating wave (c) lower.

Expected sequence:

1. Wave (a) completed at the Fibonacci 261.8 support zone.
2. Wave (b) rallies into resistance at 1.18655 – 1.19191.
3. Wave (c) begins and extends lower.

A rejection from the resistance area would strengthen the bearish outlook and increase the probability of a move toward the next major support region.

Key Levels

Resistance Zone

• 1.18655
• 1.19191

Support Zone

• Fibonacci 261.8 Extension Area

Downside Target

• Fibonacci 423.6 Extension Zone
• Around 1.1120 region

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains in a corrective environment despite the recent recovery from support. The primary focus is now on the resistance zone between 1.18655 and 1.19191. A bearish rejection from this area could complete wave (b) and trigger wave (c) toward the Fibonacci 423.6 extension target near 1.1120.

Traders should monitor price behaviour closely within the resistance zone, as failure to break above it would reinforce the bearish correction scenario.