Bitcoin (BTCUSD) H4 Analysis: Rally Into Resistance May Trigger Final Bearish Wave

Bitcoin has reached a key resistance zone after completing a corrective recovery from its recent low. Price is now testing the Fibonacci 261.8 extension area, which coincides with a projected Wave (iv) completion zone. The market structure suggests that BTCUSD may be approaching the end of its corrective rally before resuming the broader bearish trend.

BTCUSD H4 Technical Overview

The chart shows a completed decline from Wave (ii) into Wave (iii), followed by a corrective advance labelled as Wave (iv). Price has now reached the projected resistance area near the Fibonacci 261.8 extension, where selling pressure may begin to emerge.

The current advance appears corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting that buyers are losing momentum as the market approaches a critical decision point.

Elliott Wave Structure Signals Potential Reversal

According to the current Elliott Wave count, the market has likely completed:

• Wave (i) decline
• Wave (ii) corrective rebound
• Strong Wave (iii) bearish impulse
• Ongoing Wave (iv) correction

If this count remains valid, Bitcoin could soon begin Wave (v), which would represent the final bearish leg of the current cycle.

The projected path suggests that a rejection from the current resistance zone could trigger a fresh decline toward new lows.

Momentum Indicator Shows Bullish Convergence

The AO (Awesome Oscillator) indicator continues to display bullish convergence.

While price created a lower low during Wave (iii), momentum failed to confirm the weakness, indicating that bearish momentum is slowing.

However, the chart annotation highlights “Waiting for Divergence,” meaning traders should monitor whether the current Wave (iv) rally produces bearish divergence before entering short positions.

Key Resistance and Downside Targets

Immediate resistance is located around the Fibonacci 261.8 extension zone, where Wave (iv) is expected to complete.

A confirmed rejection from this area could open the door for:

• Wave (v) decline
• Break below previous lows
• Continuation of the larger bearish structure

The bearish scenario remains valid as long as price fails to establish a sustained breakout above the current resistance zone.

BTCUSD H4 Forecast

Bitcoin is currently testing a critical resistance area after completing a corrective recovery. The Elliott Wave structure suggests that Wave (iv) may be nearing completion, while momentum indicators warn that the rally could be losing strength.

Traders should closely monitor price action around the current resistance zone. A bearish rejection could confirm the beginning of Wave (v), potentially leading to a fresh move toward lower price levels in the sessions ahead.