Bitcoin (BTCUSD) H4 Analysis: Corrective Rebound May Complete Before Bearish Trend Resumes

Bitcoin Maintains Bearish Structure Despite Recent Recovery

Bitcoin continues to trade within a broader bearish trend after completing a strong impulsive decline from the wave (ii) high. Following the completion of wave (iii), price has entered a corrective recovery phase that appears to be developing as wave (iv).

The current rebound remains corrective in nature and has yet to invalidate the prevailing bearish outlook.

Elliott Wave Structure Suggests Another Leg Lower

The chart indicates that Bitcoin may have completed waves (i), (ii), and (iii) of a larger bearish sequence.

The current structure suggests:

• Wave (iii) completed near the recent swing low.
• Wave (iv) is currently unfolding as a corrective rebound.
• Wave (v) is expected to develop after wave (iv) concludes, potentially pushing price toward fresh lows.

The highlighted resistance zone near the wave (iv) area remains a key region to monitor for bearish rejection.

Resistance Zone Could Cap Further Upside

Price is currently approaching an important resistance cluster that aligns with previous support-turned-resistance levels and Fibonacci retracement projections.

Failure to break above this zone would reinforce the bearish scenario and increase the probability of wave (v) beginning from current levels.

A decisive breakout above resistance would delay the bearish outlook and suggest a more complex correction is developing.

AO Indicator Signals Potential Bullish Divergence

The Awesome Oscillator (AO) continues to display convergence characteristics, indicating that downside momentum has weakened compared with the previous decline.

However, bullish divergence has not yet been fully confirmed. Traders should continue monitoring momentum behaviour for confirmation before anticipating a larger corrective recovery.

Until a confirmed divergence develops, the dominant trend remains bearish.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance

• Wave (iv) resistance zone
• Fibonacci retracement cluster near recent highs

Support

• Wave (iii) low
• Lower target zone identified for wave (v)

Bitcoin Forecast

The preferred scenario remains bearish while the current corrective rebound stays below the highlighted resistance zone.

A rejection from the wave (iv) area could trigger the next impulsive decline, with wave (v) expected to drive Bitcoin toward new lows and complete the broader five-wave bearish structure.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a corrective rebound following the completion of wave (iii). While momentum indicators suggest downside pressure is easing, the broader Elliott Wave structure continues to favour another bearish leg lower.

Traders should closely monitor price action around the resistance zone, as a rejection from this area could provide confirmation that wave (v) is beginning.

Trading Outlook: Bearish below the wave (iv) resistance zone, with expectations for wave (v) to extend toward fresh lows.